One year and three days ago, on May 15 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finished a fish meal in Ashkelon. In the process, he managed to get his shirt dirty and joke with those around him. Outside, he ran into Nir Dvori and gave him a brief interview. An excerpt from it appeared yesterday on X, formerly Twitter, and on Rafi Reshef's show: "We see anyone who plans to harm us, to kill our citizens, to damage our cities, as a legitimate target for attack at any time," Netanyahu declared.
What does he mean? “Can Assad, Nasrallah and even Sinwar sleep peacefully now? I think they wake up at night with disturbing thoughts." Dvori pressed. "You will have to examine this over time," Netanyahu replied with a triumphant gesture. Well, it's been a year. Ten million Israelis wake up disturbed at night. Their country is on its knees.
For the first time since the War of Independence, Israel's enemies succeeded in occupying bases and cities in the south and forced the Israeli government to evacuate a large area of land in the north. The destruction Israel has undergone in a short period of time is unprecedented. It is reminiscent of what happened to Putin's Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. Except we are not Russia. Putin is now recovering and threatening Kharkiv again. He has strategic depth, he has endless resources, he has veto power. We have Netanyahu. We are not recovering.
The one who is recovering is Yahya Sinwar. It is impossible not to recall the amazing prophecy of Yitzhak Shamir, who called the person responsible for all this "the angel of destruction" three decades ago. The havoc that Netanyahu has wreaked on Israel in all areas is incomprehensible and unprecedented. He has dismantled the social fabric, the unity of the country, the Israeli brotherhood. He has ruined the economy. He has not lifted a finger to stop the breakdown of academia. It has led to the weakening of Israel's growth engines such as the hi-tech and technology industries.
He has turned Israel into a leper colony. He destroyed the deterrence. He is listed as the supreme responsible minister (prime minister) in all the greatest disasters that have befallen us, from the fire in the Carmel through the Meron tragedy to October 7, but he is not willing to accept responsibility, he is not willing to draw conclusions, he is not willing to implement what he recommended at the time to Ehud Olmert.
He clings to the reins of power, and he drags the entire country down to the abyss. He is surrounded by a crowd of fearful dwarves, devoid of spines or courage, who collaborate in all of this. History will judge them too.
Human panic button
It all starts and ends with "total victory," the catchy slogan Netanyahu coined after recovering from the black bitterness and the humiliating paralysis in which he was caught on Saturday, October 7, 2023, from the morning until the next day.
He was looking for something catchy that would resonate well and bring his shaken supporters back to him. He always finds catchy slogans. It's a shame that the man didn't open an advertising agency during his time in Boston. "Strong against Hamas," remember? Or "One big Likud against the entire left."
So what's the problem with absolute victory? No problem, except for the fact that there is no such thing. It doesn't exist. Illusion. Delusion. A vain spell. An organized farce. You don't need to be a military historian to know that. A massive terror network built over decades, within a population of millions of supporters, with the world's most vast tunnel network, with stockpiles of weapons and supplies, with tens of thousands of zealous fighters ready to sacrifice their lives and resolute leadership thirsty for blood. They cannot be defeated in a blitzkrieg or in lightning operations. To defeat Gaza, it takes endurance, patience, perseverance. It takes time.
How do I know all this? Simple: We had a similar story, just much more simple, in Judea and Samaria. Operation Defensive Shield began about 22 years ago, in 2002. Its first phase lasted over four years. Yes, in the end we managed to dry the sea with a spoon and then we activated the famous lawnmower. This operation continues to this day. The terrorism was defeated, but not eradicated. Our soldiers patrol the streets every night. This is possible because in the West Bank, there is a Palestinian Authority that takes care of everything except security. It cooperates in security with our forces. That's a fact.
When the IDF enters any refugee camp, the PA does nothing. This is a kind of strange coexistence between increased civilian control by the Palestinians themselves, and Israel's intrusive and uncompromising security responsibility. A kind of combination created in circumstances that no one planned, but the results are reasonable. No one in Israel (apart from the regular extremists) thinks that the agreements with the PA should be canceled now and scattered to the wind. On the contrary, the current right-wing government has recently taken several urgent measures to help the PA keep its head above water. The collapse of the PA is perceived, even in Benjamin Netanyahu's stubborn mind, as a catastrophe. This is also a fact.
The same thing, only with significantly worse outcomes, happened in other places in the world. It took months and years to defeat terrorist cities like Mosul, Raqqa, Fallujah, and others. Cities that are much smaller than Gaza. Cities run by terrorists are less dangerous, less skilled, less fortified than Gaza. Against them stood a tremendous international coalition led by the United States, with full legitimacy, with endless resources, intelligence, technology, and manpower. And still, it took ages. And even after it ended, it didn't end. Fact: The American effort in Afghanistan and Iraq suffered a severe setback. Wars of this kind require time, patience and determination.
Even after the enemy is defeated, the embers continue to hiss, the weeds continue to sprout, constant work is required. What Netanyahu did with his "absolute victory" slogan is build expectations, to make empty promises and to create a false presentation of the situation. He climbed a tree from which he cannot descend. This is not the first time. He's been doing this his whole career. But this time it's deadly. it's dangerous. It's existential.
Basically, "Mr. Security" is the most lax person elected here to the position of prime minister. The most fearful, the most bewildered, the most defeated. Ariel Sharon defined it perfectly at the time, when he said, "Netanyahu is, ah, an outwardly stressed man, in any instance of pressure he immediately becomes stressed, he panics and loses his temper. This is how I saw him not once, but many times. That is Netanyahu. A man who panics and loses his temper. In order to manage this country, to face the most difficult problems there are, you need the following things: sound judgment and nerves of steel. He has neither."
This stood out when Netanyahu opened the Western Wall tunnel and riots broke out. How he panicked, how he sweated, how he rushed to Washington, to find his new friend, Yasser Arafat. Or when he ordered (against the recommendations) to eliminate Khaled Mashal in Jordan. How he panicked, how he trembled, how he sweated, how he released Ahmed Yassin and several other murderers and sent the anti-Dot team with Danny Yatom, Ephraim Halevi and Ariel Sharon to Amman, to save Meshal. How did he badly stumbled in every round in the Gaza Strip against Hamas? How he tried with all his might to escape from any significant action in Operation Protective Edge, and succumbed to the endless indecisiveness of Naftali Bennett, who almost imposed some kind of tunnel operation on him. And there are countless other examples on record.
The most absurd incident is related to Sharon himself: The night of the "banana putsch," when a group of Likud rebels organized against Sharon and the disengagement, gathered, numbering many. Other rebels kept a low profile, waiting for Netanyahu to join in order to come out of the closet and overturn the decisive vote on disengagement. Netanyahu hesitated. Sharon sat in the Knesset and did not move, like an ancient sphinx statue.
Netanyahu hesitated, sweated, decided, and regretted, while the time for the decisive vote was running out. Sharon's men were worried. They knew everything hung by a threat. "Don't worry," Sharon told them. "Bibi needs to be taken care of," they said to him. "Bibi will take care of himself," he replied. And indeed, at the moment for the decision, when the speaker of the Knesset read his name, Netanyahu rushed into the plenary hall, hair disheveled and sweaty, and announced "in favor."
That is how the disengagement happened. Thanks to him. It was only one of four important votes in which he participated and supported. And those of you who now claim that the main criticism should be directed at Sharon, who initiated and brought about the disengagement, should take into account that Sharon would have never allowed the Hamas monster to grow to such proportions in Gaza. Never. He would grit his teeth, hold back, but in the end act. Just as he did with the security fence. Under him, Yahya Sanwar would not have received $30 million in cash every month. I doubt he would have been released from prison.
Only the smell remains
In the Middle East, now there are three leaders in bunkers, either real or virtual ones. The first is Hassan Nasrallah. Despite the passion and the rhetoric, the Hezbollah leader still fears for his life and knows that he is in a high place in the Air Force's hit list. He hardly ever moves around in the open, but rather moves in secrecy, maintaining completely obscurity around his whereabouts. The second is Yahya Sinwar. This is known. The man has been stuck in some tunnel for seven months, but he is quite pleased with himself.
The third is Benjamin Netanyahu. A prime minister who is afraid of his own people, who didn't attend the ceremony for outstanding soldiers at the president's residence, who didn't attend the Bible quiz, and didn't come to the Israel Prize ceremony. He sent all kinds of ridiculous videos of his wife and himself. And of course, the traditional video blessing at the Remembrance Day ceremony, where for the first time, the head of state did not participate in the audience.
Netanyahu thinks he can make his environment permanently clean. He does not have the courage to face his people. He cannot bear the fact that the truth will be thrown in his face, the facts, the disasters he brought upon the country. This coward does not reach the heels of his predecessor, Naftali Bennett, who stood at the Remembrance Day ceremony with a bowed head and listened, patiently, to a very long outburst of protest and cries from the families of the fallen. "You are bereaved families, you are holy," Bennett said. His face was distorted with pain, but he stood there. He did not run away.
Netanyahu's followers were elated this week by the brilliant move he made regarding Benny Gantz and the issue of haredi conscription. What a magician, what a genius. Instead of putting forward some kind of compromise bill that would be rejected by Gantz, postponed by Yoav Gallant and rejected by the High Court of Justice, Netanyahu announced that he would advance the law passed by Gantz’s previous government.
The euphoria lasted for about fifteen minutes. After the magic faded and only the scent remained, it became clear that it could not be applied continuously, as it was only intended as an interim arrangement, and was not related to Gantz’s updated conscription plan submitted after October 7. Most importantly, with or without Gantz, this is yet another deception that will allow haredim to not be drafted to the IDF, but will keep them in the coalition.
What we are experiencing now is a direct result of Netanyahu's "brilliant maneuvers". He lives from one brilliant maneuver to another. He will always know how to pull another trick from up his sleeve to get out of another dead end and leave all the balls in the air. However, these maneuvers are just tricks. They have no real action, they don't involve making important decisions, and they have no connection to the need to govern and strengthen the country. Instead of dealing with Yahya Sinwar, he attacks Benny Gantz. Instead of addressing Hassan Nasrallah, he focuses on Gallant. Instead of thinking 24/7 about defending the country and its survival, he only thinks about self-defense and survival.
The man responsible for the majority of the destructive "containment" policy that allowed Nasrallah to build a monster in the north and for Sinwar to imitate him in the south, is Netanyahu. Olmert was the last to try to manage these two fronts, with considerable success. Sharon, before him, dealt with Palestinian terrorism. Netanyahu took care of himself. His one and only mission was to stay in power. He succeeded. He remained in power. At this rate, he'll soon have nothing to control. And as always, the country paid the price. The direct results of his brilliant maneuvers and legendary evasions are now scattered around us.
Seeing and ignoring
This week, for the second time, Gallant went out to defend the country against Netanyahu. He issued a second strategic warning, after the previous time when he was momentarily dismissed by the Netanyahu troll and remained in his position when it turned out the chair wasn't falling. This time, Netanyahu's dilemma was easier. He knew he couldn't dismiss Gallant now. He'll dismiss Gallant later. If there will be a later.
Gallant earns his praises honestly. During Operation Protective Edge, he is the only one in Netanyahu's coalition with a backbone. I look at people like Avi Dichter, Nir Barkat, Israel Katz, Yuli Edelstein, and others, and wonder what's going on in their heads. What are they planning to tell future generations? How do they intend to justify the disgrace, and do they believe it will be possible to wash away the stain, purify the filth, sever the connection to what has happened here in recent years?
They understand the situation well. They know its dangers. They hope for Netanyahu's disappearance, his troubled family, and his tarnished role in the life of the country, but they are not ready to point a finger to make it happen. They are complicit in what has happened and what will happen here, no less than Netanyahu.
Relatively speaking, Gallant is an Israeli hero. If we compare him to the pile of garden gnomes around him, he is a beacon of courage and sacrifice. But in a perfect world and a well-ordered country, one could come to Gallant with complaints. One could ask him, for example, about his stance on the issue of enlistment. He is the Defense Minister. Does he not have a proposal? Does the security establishment not have a draft law drafted? Why is he waiting for a consensus law to be submitted to him? Why doesn't he initiate such a law? He is responsible for the system, isn't he? He's not the UN Secretary-General. He's the one in charge of the army. That includes conscription. He's not the referee. He's the main striker. He should score.
The same goes for the war. What Gallant said in his speech on Wednesday was simple: We are in a tough war, a war of existence, and the prime minister is making political decisions amid the crisis. He is motivated by political considerations. Yes, that was the implication of Gallant's words. He knows that the IDF will enter Jabaliya again and again, and then Zeitoun again, and will have to enter other places again, burying more and more soldiers along the way, and he knows that there is no purpose, nor reason for it, and there is no logic to it. He knows that this will not lead to "total victory," but to attrition and a Lebanon or Vietnam-style stalemate.
His conclusion is to deliver a speech to the nation. But he is the Defense Minister. He needs to focus on actions, not words. He, and also the Chief of Staff, need to bang on the table in the cabinet and clarify that they are not sending soldiers to die in hopeless missions until the government makes real decisions that include a genuine mechanism for ending the war. Want an Israeli military government? Please. Don't want it? Then please, an alternative. No more postponements, no more dragging feet, no more wasting time. The Defense Minister is the embodiment of the government's power to deploy the IDF. He needs to exert his power. If it's not good for them, let them dismiss him. I think Gallant won't shed a tear if he receives dismissal from this disastrous government.
Real time
Meanwhile, Israel is relinquishing territory in the north. Such a thing didn’t happen before. Interior Minister Moshe Arbel sat yesterday with the people of Kiryat Shmona and heard alarming statistics from them. It turns out that 12% of the city's residents have already decided to stay and live in Tiberias. All the rest are scattered across dozens of places throughout the country, and according to estimates, around 40% of them are not interested in returning home. They've had enough of the experience. They've been left to fend for themselves, and they're fed up with it.
The IDF is conducting a campaign against Hezbollah, with notable successes and achievements. The army is doing its utmost within the circumstances and limitations imposed upon it. However, the other side is not idle either. After everything is said and done, if we ever reach that point, solutions will need to be found for the several surprises that Hezbollah has prepared for us, including its improved anti-tank missile capability, likely based on self-developed (or Iranian-developed) "Spike" missiles that Israel developed. They likely got their hands on such a missile during the Second Lebanon War or afterwards and managed to produce something similar.
This isn't a new practice. The Iranians build their missiles based on Israeli technology, and so do the Turks. One way or another, this missile allows Hezbollah to launch it beyond the line of sight, behind a hill or mountain, equipped with television guidance, reaching its target with high precision. Another problem for the Israel Air Force currently with no solution, is the smaller anti-tank missiles, those carrying a small amount of explosives but enough to cause significant damage. Israel has proven recently that it's almost impervious to significant ballistic missile threats, but it's quite penetrable to simpler, less sophisticated threats, but no less painful.
We are entering the days of decision-making. The fate of the conscription law and the fate of the disastrous government will be decided in the next few months, as well as the fate of the war. Netanyahu is spreading his influence on all fronts, in all areas, on all issues. Even the most sworn opponent will not be able to find a single, isolated achievement of this government. Its failures and shortcomings are evident all around us from every past incident and continue to accumulate.
Above all this, soldiers continue to fall. In the south and also in the north. When you survey the list of recent casualties, you come across many names of young soldiers, some of whom have already completed their basic training. They shouldn't be thrown to the frontlines in the natural course of things, but where are we, and where is any natural course? The IDF is stretching its manpower thin.
When the time comes, we will need to hold all those responsible (and there are many) accountable for the gradual erosion of the military over generations. Meanwhile, the solution is to raise the retirement age from reserves sharply, extend regular service significantly, and increase the number of annual reserve duty days for soldiers and officers. In other words: increasing the burden on those who have carried it for 76 years.
The Netanyahu government’s solution to this situation? Simple, not to say elementary: a military government in Gaza and a draft evasion law. For those who have forgotten: a military government means tens of billions from the state budget drawn every year for maintaining and managing the Gaza Strip, and thousands, or tens of thousands of soldiers stationed there. Where will we get the money? Where will we get the soldiers? What does it matter now? When we get to the bridge, we'll cross it. Statistics prove that Netanyahu will pull off some brilliant maneuver again when the time comes.