What Should The Cleveland Cavaliers Do Next?

After being swiftly discarded by the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Semifinals (something I was not anticipating), the Cleveland Cavaliers now have their attention shifted toward the 2024 offseason.

This reality — transitioning to offseason mode after being eliminated from the postseason — isn’t atypical. What does make Cleveland’s situation unique, though, is all the question marks surrounding their roster heading into this summer.

The Cavaliers are a good basketball team. I think they have enough tangible talent (meaning non-draft capital) to contend for an NBA right now. The problem is the pieces don’t fit together, and arguably more importantly, the team is uncertain whether or not some of those pieces want to be there at all.

This makes their offense especially crucial. If Cleveland plays their cards right, they could enter the 2024-25 season as one of the best teams in the league. But if they make the wrong move(s), they may just shut their championship window before it was ever really fully open.

That begs the question: how should the Cavaliers approach this offseason?

(Sidebar: Before I begin prescribing an offseason plan, I must add that — while I put a great degree of thought into this — I still am not a member of an NBA front office and am not completely aware of all the variables impacting their decision-making process. So, take my opinion with a grain of salt.)

Step 1: Figure Out What Donovan Mitchell Wants

Before they do anything else, Cleveland needs to figure out what Donovan Mitchell’s plans are for the next part of his career. After 2024-25, Mitchell has a player option for 2025-26 — one he is expected to decline. Cleveland has the opportunity to offer him an extension this offseason, but it is uncertain whether or not he will take it. If he doesn’t, look for multiple teams to try and pounce at the opportunity of acquiring him (as Cleveland will want to trade him before he hits free agency).

This likely goes without saying, but if Mitchell wants to stay, you keep him. Not only is he one of their best players, but he’s also one of the best in the sport. Last season, he finished 10th in the entire NBA in Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM), per Dunks & Threes.

If Mitchell is committed to Cleveland long-term, that means that the team should look to move off of Darius Garland (and vice versa if Mitchell wants out). Either way, one of them needs to go. The Mitchell/Garland backcourt possesses problems similar to the ones we discussed with Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. Besides, it appears Garland will likely look for a trade if Mitchell decides to stand pat.

(Sidebar #2: Also, with the flashes that rookie Craig Porter Jr. demonstrated this year, Cleveland should feel good about handing him the keys to the backup point guard spot next season.)

Step 2: Decide Which Big Man You Want To Keep

After deciding which of their guards they want to keep, Cleveland must then choose one of the starting centers they employ that they want to man the middle moving forward. As we saw when they were setting the world on fire in December and January (19-7 during those months), Cleveland is at their best when the core four is split in half.

As you can see from the graphic below, Cleveland had two of the ten best five-man lineups in the league this season (minimum 200 possessions played, per Cleaning the Glass) — one with Garland and Evan Mobley and one with Mitchell and Jarrett Allen.

It is pretty clear at this point that the Cavaliers are better with only one of the bigs on the floor. So, who should they keep? Neither of them appears to want a trade. That means it is merely a matter of preference.

Allen is 26 and still has two seasons left on his current contract (which, at 20 million per year, is a bargain). Meanwhile, Mobley is closing in on 23 with restricted free agency looming after the 2024-25 season. Given his production, it is probable that he’ll demand the rookie max extension (and it seems like Cleveland is going to give it to him).

(Sidebar #3: For those wondering, a rookie max extension is a five-year extension that pays players 25% of the salary cap. Even if the 2025-26 salary cap stays the same as the 2024-25 figure, Mobley would be making about 15 million dollars more than Allen in 2025-26.)

Before the postseason, I would have said they should keep Allen. He was the one who was healthy during Cleveland’s best stretch, and he’s been a significantly better screener, roll man, and post up player than Mobley. This is illustrated in the differences in the tandem’s OFF EPMs. In the regular season, Allen was in the 90th percentile in OFF EPM, whereas Mobley was only in the 69th percentile. He’ll also be cheaper than Mobley moving forward.

However, after Mobley’s postseason showing (and given the fact that he’s three years younger), I’d probably lean toward him now (although I totally still see the argument for picking Allen over Mobley). In the eight games after Allen went down with a rib injury, Mobley averaged 16.9 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 2.6 APG, and 2.1 BPG on 62.4% true shooting (which is over six percentage points better than the league average in the playoffs). Cleveland’s defense also had a 110.8 defensive rating in Mobley’s minutes (two points lower than the playoff average), despite five of those eight games coming against the best regular season offense in basketball (Boston).

On top of all that, he demonstrated massive improvement when it came to dealing with the enhanced physicality of the game’s second season.

Step 3: Get The Right Assets For The Two Stars You Decide To Trade

Once the Cavaliers have decided which two members of their Big Four they want to part ways with, the next (and final) phase of their offseason plan is to get the right return pieces to maximize the two stars that remain on the roster.

For the sake of simplicity, let’s assume the two players they are aiming to trade are Garland and Allen. The good news is that, even with Garland’s end-of-season struggles, the two are still easily among the 50 best players in the association. They may not fit into Cleveland’s current roster construction, but they can clearly help another team reach their goals. Therefore, the Cavaliers shouldn’t have too much of a problem trading them in for players that complement Mitchell and Mobley. Also, if necessary, the Cavaliers also have their 2024 first round pick (20th overall pick) to sweeten the pot if necessary.

So, what pieces does Cleveland need to reach the next level?

(Sidebar #4: Regardless of which guard and big pairing they decide to trade, the players they should be targeting in return are pretty much the same.)

As you can infer from the fact that Cleveland was already fielding elite lineups led by Garland/Mobley and Mitchell/Allen, the Cavaliers already have some strong role players. Max Strus, Dean Wade, and Caris LeVert will factor heavily into the team’s plans moving forward.

To aid this nucleus, Cleveland should seek out a modern “three-and-D” wing/forward — one who can shoot, play multiple roles on defense, and drive closeouts. They should also try and acquire a backup center who offers a different look than Mobley but isn’t too good (or at least too expensive) to be overqualified for a bench role.

Some realistic names that could be available this offseason that fit the former category are Mikal Bridges, Jaylen Brown (if Boston comes up short again), Bruce Brown, Caleb Martin (it would have to be via sign-and-trade, though), Alex Caruso, and Jerami Grant. On the flip side, some backup bigs they could target are Larry Nance Jr., Jonas Valanciunas (another sign-and-trade scenario), Andre Drummond, Moritz Wagner, Goga Bitadze, Duop Reath, Kelly Olynyk, and John Collins.

The specifics of how these players would be acquired is outside the scope of this article. The point is that Cleveland needs to replace Garland and Allen (or whoever they decide to move) with as much size, shooting, and defense as possible.

It is worth noting that going in this direction — breaking up the Big Four and turning it into a Big Two — lowers the floor of this team. In the past, Cleveland could afford for one or two of the members of their Big Four to miss time with injuries because they could count on the other guys to pick up the slack. Now, if one of their two stars gets hurt, their landing won’t be nearly as pleasant.

But going in this direction will raise this team's ceiling, which is what Cleveland wants at this point in time. They are done with the high-40/low-50 win seasons. They want a serious shot at the throne. They want to prove that they can open the gates of the castle without The King leading them to the door.

And you know what? For the first time since LeBron James left (again) in 2018, Cleveland has what it takes to build a winner. They just need to act wisely this summer.