The royal baby is literally about to arrive, and that fact alone has made many people (read: me) want minute-by-minute updates of what’s going on with Meghan Markle and Prince Harry. Understandable. But there’s one major conspiracy theory that tons of royal fans are asking about: Has Meghan already had her baby and we just don’t know about it?

First of all, that’s probably not true, but here’s why people are wondering:

Harry’s supposed to leave the country literally next week.

Okay, here’s the most compelling evidence that Meghan has already given birth. Today, Rebecca English, a royal reporter, tweeted that Harry is going to the Netherlands next week for royal stuff..........

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What soon-to-be first-time dad, in his right mind, would schedule an overseas trip right around his wife’s due date??? Like, if he’s supposed to go out of town next week, that means (1) the baby is already here, (2) Meghan is in labor right this second, or (3) Harry is planning on skipping his own baby’s birth. That last one is super, super unlikely. So chances are, this baby is coming sometime between today, May 1, and next Wednesday, May 8.

Doria Ragland has been at Frogmore Cottage since April 16.

Meghan’s mom packed her bags—and reportedly canceled her yoga classes—in order to fly out to England to be with her daughter and Prince Harry. Harper’s Bazaar says Doria has now been at Frogmore Cottage for a full week.

Obviously, this is a major clue that Meghan is having this baby SOON.

Meghan and Harry already thanked everyone for their baby gifts.

Seems a little preemptive to thank people for baby gifts before the baby arrives, right? Meghan and Harry did just that last week, when they wrote a heartfelt Instagram post to everyone who donated on their baby’s behalf.

But hey, maybe they’re just super polite, who knows?

Meghan and Harry have decided to keep all their plans surrounding the birth of the baby private.

They released a statement saying, “The Duke and Duchess look forward to sharing the exciting news with everyone once they have had an opportunity to celebrate privately as a family.” Okay, so this means they won’t be doing the (in)famous Lindo Wing photo that Kate Middleton has done with all three of her kids.

Royal reporter Rebecca English tweeted that it seems like Meghan and Harry will actually organize a photo call for them/the baby around two days after the birth. This means that if Meghan and Harry aren’t doing photos as they leave the hospital, it might be hard to tell when Meghan actually goes into labor and has the baby.

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Meghan reportedly wants to have a home birth.

Per the Daily Mail, Meghan actually wants to have the baby at home with a midwife. “It is her favored choice,” a friend of Meghan’s said, “but it obviously depends on how things are nearer the time.”

If that ends up happening, it could also make it easier for the royal family to keep it a secret. If Meghan/Harry/Baby Sussex don’t have to travel to/from a hospital, an incognito birth is much more possible.

Prince Charles is going out of town very soon too.

Prince Charles is also taking a trip right at the beginning of May. Again, you’d think the royal family wouldn’t schedule a trip for the same window Meghan is due, which essentially rules out that week in May.

So, where does that leave us?

Okay, yeah. We definitely can’t tell for certain that Meghan hasn’t given birth, but here’s the thing: When royal babies are born, the family puts a fancy-pants piece of paper outside Buckingham Palace announcing the news. It looks like this:

The Duchess Of Cambridge Gives Birth To A Baby Boy
Dan Kitwood//Getty Images

And since no such paper has appeared at Buckingham Palace, it’s probably safe to say Meghan has not had her baby yet. So there.