The Washington Capitals are an analytics enigma. During last season’s Stanley Cup run the team was woefully outshot over the course of the regular season — they took 48 percent of the even-strength shot attempts in 2017-18, placing them 24th in the league — and exceeded expectations in terms of even-strength goals scored (171) compared to what we would expect given the shot type, distance and angle of each attempt (159). Only the Nashville Predators, Tampa Bay Lightning and Anaheim Ducks exceeded expectations by a larger amount.
Historically, this has not been a recipe for success. From 2007-08, the first year data is available, to 2017-18 there were 23 teams that had a Corsi rate of under 50 percent, a positive goal differential and a negative expected goal differential during the regular season. Only three of those teams, the 2017-18 Capitals, 2007-08 Pittsburgh Penguins and 2008-09 Penguins, advanced as far as the Stanley Cup finals. Two of the three won the Stanley Cup.
Washington’s front office and players weren’t surprised — they’ve insisted for years this is a feature, not a bug, of they way they play.
“I don’t think shot volume is overrated, but you can affect two things: You can affect shot volume and you can affect shooting percentage,” Capitals General Manager Brian MacLellan told The Post last year. “So, you concentrate on affecting shooting percentage and doing whatever you think is important to affect shooting percentage to increase your goals percentage.”
Shot location is one such component that the Capitals focus upon, and it can absolutely affect shooting percentage. Scoring chances, particularly those from the slot or the crease, are more valuable than those from anywhere else on the ice. For example, teams converted high-danger scoring chances at a rate of 18 percent this season, nearly three times higher than all other shot attempts combined (6 percent).
Washington has also focused on trying to make the goalie move from side to side, which also reduces his ability to get square on shot attempts and in turn increases shooting percentages. Last year, The Post’s Isabelle Khurshudyan discussed the concept with former NHL netminder Steve Valiquette.
“I know unequivocally that when a goalie has more than half of a second of clear sight on the puck, the puck only goes into the back of the net 2.7 percent of the time,” Valiquette said last year. “So, clearsighted shots are typically about 60 to 70 percent of all of the shots taken in a hockey game. If the pass goes across the ice to another player and he receives it and then shoots it, well, those go in 31 percent of the time. And on and on and on. A breakaway goes in 30 percent of the time. A partial breakaway goes in 27 percent of the time. A rebound off a wraparound goes in 22 percent of the time.”
There’s some evidence that this approach works, as Washington has consistently outperformed expectations by scoring more goals than you’d expect, and has done so 10 of the past 12 seasons, including the last five years, including this one, as Kevin Klein wrote for Japer’s Rink. So there is reason to believe the Capitals have a system that can consistently defy the odds. The opposite view, however, would suggest that the Capitals have defied the odds for so long, that Washington is overdue for a course correction that could come at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes.
In this playoff series, we are seeing what can happen when a high-volume, high-quality shot-producing team like the Hurricanes faces off against the Capitals over seven games: The percentages start to swing back to where the data shows you’d expect them to be, in favor of the team with the greater shot volume. While the series is tied at three games apiece, Carolina has outscored the Capitals by a goal over the first six games.
It is difficult to get high-quality chances in abundance without putting a high-volume of shots on net: the five teams with the most high-danger chances in 2018-19 all rank in the top 7 for shot volume. Among the 10 best high-danger producing clubs only two, the Dallas Stars and New York Islanders, ranked outside the top 15 for shot volume. Washington ended the regular season with 333 high-danger chances (24th) and Carolina finished with a league-leading 481.
Again, no team created more high-danger chances at even strength than the Hurricanes did during the regular season (14 per 60 minutes, per Natural Stat Trick) but they converted a below-average 15 percent of those chances, a byproduct of poor puck luck rather than a lack of finishing skill. Carolina’s shot rate has declined a bit in the playoffs (12 high-danger chances per 60 minutes) but their shooting rate has ballooned to a postseason high of 31 percent. That translates to almost one out of every three shot attempts from the slot or the crease lighting the lamp at even strength. Washington, by comparison, is converting 14 percent of its high-danger chances in this series. Unfortunately for the Capitals, not only are they seeing a lower rate of high-danger chances turn into goals, they are also not producing as many as the Hurricanes are (56 to 45).
Luck plays a huge role in the playoffs, but teams can make their own luck, too, and so far that’s what Carolina has done. If Washington doesn’t do the same in Game 7 we could be staring at another postseason upset.
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