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The simple answer to whether or not the Utah Jazz can completely erase their 0-3 series deficit to the Houston Rockets is probably, "No."
But thanks to Monday's Game 4 win, in which the Jazz used a 31-12 fourth quarter to win 107-91, the "probably" qualifier is necessary.
Now, the odds of Utah winning three more games in a row are quite low. So, maybe looking at them could serve as something of a reality check.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Jazz have a 5% chance to pull off the comeback. Jacob Goldstein of The Basketball Index has a model that puts Utah's chances at 7%. And Basketball Reference is all the way up to 12.1%, which is a better forecast than it gives the Oklahoma City Thunder (8.3%), Brooklyn Nets (4.7%), Los Angeles Clippers (4.4%) or Orlando Magic (2.5%) .
Again, all of these are low. Even 12.1% is. But it's just enough to go full Lloyd Christmas:
From a tactical standpoint, the Jazz do seem to have some things figured out.
First of all, a radical defensive approach that seemed destined to fail at the outset of the series is kind of, sort of, working? Utah defenders are literally playing behind James Harden on the perimeter. It's unlike anything we've ever seen in the NBA. In the regular season, the Milwaukee Bucks took an exaggerated stance on Harden's left shoulder, trying to force him right. Utah exaggerated things even further:
Harden just had the best pace- and minute-adjusted scoring season since 1962 Wilt Chamberlain, according to Ben Taylor. And the Jazz deliberately gave him an open path to the lane. Of course, few, if any, teams other than Utah can do that. It has Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint. And through four games, Harden is now 5-of-27 (18.5%) in the range of 3-10 feet. Houston is scoring 2.3 fewer points per 100 possessions with Harden on the floor than it did with him playing in the regular season. And if you narrow it down to just the two games in Utah, the Rockets are scoring 16.2 fewer points per 100 possessions with Harden on than they did during the season.
The more the Jazz lean into the strategy, the better it seems to work. After Game 5, this could all be moot, though. Harden was significantly better in Games 1 and 2 at home. And the rest of the team will almost certainly play with more urgency than what we saw in Game 4. But don't expect the Jazz to deviate from the strategy that gave them a chance to win Game 3 and put them over the top on Monday.
On the other end of the floor, Utah is struggling. But, as is the case with the defense, the tactics aren't the issue. Jazz shooters just can't hit open shots.
"Updated numbers after Jazz’s Game 4 win: 55.7 quantified shot quality, still best in playoffs," ESPN's Tim MacMahon tweeted Tuesday. "19-of-84 (22.6%) on wide-open 3s, still worst for any team in last five postseasons."
For those who don't know, "quantified shot quality" measures the number of points a team should score based on where it's getting its shots from. And the Jazz are getting loads of good ones. But, as noted by MacMahon, they just aren't converting them. In the regular season, Utah's top five shooters by three-point percentage hit a combined 39.3% of their attempts from deep. In this series, those five--Joe Ingles, Kyle Korver, Royce O'Neale, Georges Niang and Thabo Sefolosha--are shooting 29% from three. Donovan Mitchell, Ricky Rubio and Jae Crowder are a combined 20-of-72 (27.8%).
The offense has been fine structurally. Gobert's rolls to the rim are still collapsing the defense. As are Mitchell and Rubio's drives. And everyone seems to be finding the shooters. Utah's fifth among playoff teams in potential assists, per NBA.com/stats. But it's eighth in assists and 12th in percentage of potential assists that were actually converted.
If Utah's going to keep this series on life support, more than one of those shooters will likely need to get hot. Or, at the very least, rediscover regular-season form. And that's not all. The gimmicky defense that seems to be finding some footing has to continue to frustrate Harden.
Games 3 and 4 gave the Jazz some reason for optimism. But to win in Houston, they'll need more than optimism. They need to make some shots and hope Harden keeps missing his.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass or ESPN.
