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NBA Season Preview: What To Watch For In The Central Division

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As the 2019/2020 NBA season inches closer, 30 franchises are preparing themselves for what will ultimately be a long season. Successful teams will extend their play into the playoffs, and less successful teams will by the beginning of March look to pivot into the off-season, while still having to suffer through the final month-and-a-half.

As is the case with every team, unknown factors hover above them going into training camp, presenting great anticipation for their fanbases - and themselves. So let’s talk about them.

Other Division Previews:

West: Northwest | Pacific | Southwest - East: Atlantic

Chicago Bulls - Will Zach LaVine take the leap into superstardom?

For a team that won 22 games a year ago, it’s no surprise internal improvements, and external upgrades, are required to improve upon such a record. The Bulls opted for both, strengthening their roster by adding Thaddeus Young, Tomas Satoransky, and Luke Kornet via free agency, and drafting Coby White and Daniel Gafford, both of whom look like steady long-term pieces.

But the big key for Chicago remains the development of Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. However, given that Markkanen and Carter Jr are 22 and 20 respectively, let us divert our attention onto LaVine, who is entering his sixth season. The 24-year-old shooting guard is coming off a stellar offensive season in which he averaged 23.7 points and managed an above league-average TS% of .574 somewhat unexpectedly.

LaVine is currently the closest thing to an All-Star the Bulls have, and he’s made it a mission to make the game, which in Chicago, next February. So far during pre-season LaVine has looked the part, averaging 23.3 points in 23.8 minutes with a shot-profile that is much more efficient. Over 44% of his shot-attempts have come from behind the arc, and he’s gotten to the line 4.7 times a game. Most importantly however has been LaVine’s effort defensively, which has always been his achilles heel. He’s actively playing the passing lanes and forcing turnovers, while even rotating around onto multiple players on a single possession.

Pre-season, however, is not the regular season. So it’d be premature to pencil in LaVine as having arrived with the league’s elites when he still needs to prove it nightly when the games count. But so far, LaVine is doing all the right things and looks to have reached a point in his development where the game is slowing down for him. He’s showing more patience on his drives, frequently slowing down as he nears the rim, throwing off defenders who are back-peddling, which are aspects that are fair to be expected to carry over.

The biggest challenge for LaVine is frankly staying healthy. After tearing his ACL in 2017, LaVine has played 47, 24, and 63 games over his past three season. Last season LaVine missed games due to series of minor injuries to his ankle, back, knee, and thigh. For the Bulls to take a step forward in their rebuild, LaVine being on the court is a crucial aspect. A 70-plus game season would be a welcome sight for one of the league’s smoothest scorers.

Also relevant for LaVine’s development is the continued assertiveness of Otto Porter, who looked like a completely different player after getting traded to the Bulls in February. Porter’s long-range shooting and steady production on both ends of the court allows LaVine to be more careful in both his shot-selection, and deciding when to throw himself into a passing lane for steals. With Markkanen becoming a more refined scorer as well, LaVine should be able to get whatever high-quality shot he wants off the attention of the former two.

In conclusion, LaVine’s success this season hinges just as much on his teammates as it does himself.

Cleveland Cavaliers - Can Darius Garland and Collin Sexton co-exist?

Last year’s draft selection of Collin Sexton was meant to provide Cleveland with their long-term point guard. Instead, Sexton appears likely to be moved to the shooting guard position to hand over that responsibility to newcomer Darius Garland, selected fifth overall in June’s NBA draft. Garland, who missed all but five games at Vanderbilt due to a meniscus injury, is considered the far superior ball-handler and pull-up shooter, which necessitates the ball going through his hands.

Garland’s presence doesn’t exclude Sexton’s importance within the Cavaliers however. At 6’2 and a sturdy 190 lbs, Sexton is able to slide over to the two-guard, especially after having a year’s worth of game experience. The 20-year-old canned 119 three-pointers last season at a surprising 40.2% accuracy with only 63.9% of those makes being assisted. There’s an intriguing interchangeability forming with the young duo, both being able to create off their own dribble, and move off the ball.

Defensively, it’s a different story. On shot-attempts guarded by Sexton, opponents shot 8.2% percent better than their average overall. Sexton allowed a 18.1 percentage point increase near the rim, and 4.9 from behind the arc. Garland, who is slimmer and less physical, also enters the league with a shaky reputation as a defender. The combination of Garland and Sexton in the backcourt, for now, appears to be competent on one end, and close to unplayable on the other, which opens the door of staggering their minutes.

But avoiding to play them together isn’t a long-term fix. These are two Top 10 selections for a franchise starving for talent. The Cavaliers simply can’t afford to not get both of them out there, and the time for a trade seems a bit early, considering their age.

It would behoove the Cavs to be patient and accept the incoming growing pains. If the combination doesn’t work, but both players show some progress individually, then it becomes a situation of choice - a game the Cavaliers would like to avoid altogether if possible.

There generally is merit in a multiple ball-handler set-up, especially as the two are flanked by Kevin Love who the ball can run through offensively, if needed. In today’s league, teams need to give opposing defenses numerous challenges, and with Sexton and Garland, who come in with both their different skillsets, defenses will have to continuously adjust on the fly.

But that’s probably a few years away.

Detroit Pistons - Is Luke Kennard ready for a bigger role?

Outside of Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond, the Detroit Pistons have not had a lot of help in recent years. They cycled through competent, yet non-noteworthy options like Reggie Bullock and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and have - in the past - let go of wings like Khris Middleton and Arron Afflalo, albeit that being before the arrival of Griffin.

Luke Kennard is their next bet, and as the sweet-shooting lefty is entering year three, now’s the time to see what he can do. The 23-year-old is likely never going to be a magnet for major numbers, but his highly efficient long-range shot and ability to hang onto the basketball are two areas that should make the Pistons feel safe whenever the ball finds him. Kennard hit 39.4% of his triples last year and had a TOV% of just 9.4% as he took advantage of the attention drawn by Griffin and Drummond.

This year should be more of the same, but with one drastic change: Volume.

Kennard has taken just 985 shots over two seasons with the Pistons. A number which, frankly, should be closer to the amount he ends up taking this year alone.

Coming into the draft two years ago, Kennard was viewed as one of the best pick and roll players in college basketball, which was not an insignificant argument in making him a lottery selection. Kennard struggled as a rookie, scoring just 0.77 PPP in pick and roll situations, but took a step forward last season to 0.85 which is a substantial improvement.

Should Kennard take another leap in that department, he could become Detroit’s third most important player by lessening Griffin’s workload and become a dependable scorer off screen and rolls in his own right. With Griffin and Drummond both there to set those screens, he should get ample opportunity to get in some reps.

Finally, Kennard will need to regain his spot-up shooting touch from his rookie year, where he scored 1.28 PPP - a number that regressed to 0.96 last season. He’s too good a shooter not to severely penalize teams who leave him open.

Ultimately, it’s a big year for Kennard who needs to balance role, improvement and bouncing back as a shooter all at once. Thankfully, he’s got the pedigree and maturity to attack it.

Indiana Pacers - What is the future outlook of Myles Turner?

Entering his fifth NBA season, now is supposed to be Myles Turner’s time. The 6’11 center is one of the premier defensive players in the league, but has yet to find consistency in his offense despite numerous opportunities presenting themselves.

After Victor Oladipo went down with a season-ending knee injury, the offense-starved Indiana Pacers were looking for their own guys to step up, most notably Turner who, in Oladipo’s absence, managed just 13.9 points and 10.8 shot attempts nightly. Turner’s lack of assertiveness is an oddity considering his ability to stretch the floor (career 36.4% shooter from deep), convert at the line (77.1%), and score near the rim (68.1% from within three feet). Turner is agile, athletic, and has surprisingly decent on-ball skills for someone his size, yet is noted for just a smidge over 10 shot attempts per game over the course of his career.

Defensively, Turner is an entirely different player. He led the league in blocks last season, can stick with most wings and guards when he switches, and forces opponents to change their shots when near the rim.

In other words: Turner has every chance at becoming one of the truly elite two-way bigs in the NBA, if he accepts a larger offensive responsibility. No one is asking him to bear the same weight as Karl-Anthony Towns or Joel Embiid, but the Pacers would be vastly more difficult to plan against, if Turner was to evolve into a near-20 point scorer.

Ironically, the Pacers spent the summer upgrading their offense by either drafting, signing, or trading for Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb, T.J. Warren, and Goga Bitadze. That infusion of talent might, inadvertently, cause Turner to remain in his somewhat passive offensive role.

The presence of Domantas Sabonis also complicates matters. Sabonis, who is objectively a far superior scorer and rebounder than Turner, is dimensions worse defensively, meaning the two have well-established roles when paired. This speaks to Turner’s unselfishness, which is certainly not the worst thing to be in possession of, and his willingness to share the front-court. That’s positive in and of itself, but that mentality simultaneously prevents Turner from reaching the next level.

For this season, it might be an idea to turn Sabonis into more of a playmaker than scorer - a role he’s got the passing chops to excel in - to allow Turner another chance at breaking through offensively. While it’s never wise to force-feed players, there might be some merit in doing it on occasions with Turner if Indiana believes he can become something more than he is.

Milwaukee Bucks - Does Giannis Antetokounmpo have enough help in Khris Middleton?

While the Milwaukee Bucks tore up the league last season, their playoffs loss to Toronto, which included four straight losses, left a poor taste in the mouths of fans and observers, who had penciled this team in for the Finals. This season, focus is on washing that taste away.

That starts and ends with Giannis Antetokounmpo, the league’s defending MVP and one of the most intriguing talents in NBA history. Ultimately, Antetokounmpo is the guy who raises the quality of this team to the point where the Finals is even being discussed as a realistic possibility. But to reach those Finals, he needs help. Critics will note that Antetokounmpo doesn’t have a top-tier teammate like LeBron James has Anthony Davis or Kawhi Leonard has Paul George.

But does that really matter?

Khris Middleton, an All-Star last season, is one of the most reliable two-way wings in the NBA, albeit not a member of the upper echelon of players. He isn’t the type of player to go on a two-month stretch where he averages 30, nor is he breaking out the occasional 50-pointer to keep things fresh. What he does instead, one might argue, is far more important. He plays off of Antetokounmpo like a violin, having arrived in Milwaukee in 2013 - the same summer as the greek then-teenager made his arrival. Middleton is all too familiar with how his MVP teammate plays, stepping away to provide spacing when the 6’11 all-worlder is spinning his way into the paint or establishing himself in the post, running into his field of vision when double- or triple-teams surround him, giving him a bail-out option, and of course handling the offense when Antetokounmpo sits.

What Middleton lacks in raw star power, he makes up for with nuance and knowledge of how to weave himself into the offense. The Bucks noted their satisfaction with Middleton this summer, by re-signing him to a five-year contract worth $178 million. That is considerable vote of confidence, both for now and in the future. Middleton, who is 28, plays a game that isn’t reliant on athleticism and should age gracefully, meaning the Bucks hang onto him for the prime years of his career. This isn’t insignificant.

But is Middleton enough of a Robin to Antetokounmpo’s Batman?

Given how Antetokounmpo plays, it’s difficult to locate a star who would be as unselfish as Middleton, while providing the exact tools to optimize Antetokounmpo’s game. In that sense, the Bucks would be hard-pressed to find someone better.

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