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Toronto Maple Leafs: Five Observations Through 20 Games

This article is more than 4 years old.

Don’t blink. November is almost halfway over; the first true snowfall already happened; and the Toronto Maple Leafs have played the first quarter of the season.

Well, that last point isn’t mathematically correct . But 20 games is close enough in an 82-game slate, so we’re just going to roll with it.

Another tight loss on Wednesday — this time, 5-4 against the New York Islanders — put Toronto at 9-7-4 on the year (read: more losses than wins). By league standards, that’s mediocre. But by Toronto’s standard, that’s unsightly.

To get you up to speed on how the Maple Leafs arrived at this point, here are five observations on the team through 20 games.

If you want a refresher on how things looked through 10 games, you can find it here (and you may notice a glaring similarity or two).

1. Slow starts have not subsided

When a team allows the first goal of a game, the common quip is that they didn’t start on time. In the case of the Maple Leafs, that’s no longer a laughing matter.

Toronto has failed to “start on time” in 15 of its 20 games (and subsequently lost nine of those 15). In seven instances, its opponent drew first blood inside the opening seven minutes. That’s not how a sharp, disciplined team operates.

“I don’t know, it’s obviously been a bit of a problem for us this year,” center Auston Matthews said Sunday, after Toronto allowed four first-period goals in a loss to Chicago.

On Wednesday, the Maple Leafs trailed 2-0 after one period. They had the bulk of puck possession, but a couple defensive breakdowns made the difference. Here’s one of them:

“It feels like when we do make a mistake it seems to really hurt us,” center John Tavares said.

Perhaps he’s right, but it’s happened too many times now to be a coincidence. Toronto needs to be better at the outset.

2. Tale of two goalies

Frederik Andersen is Toronto’s MVP so far this season, despite having some less-than-earth-shattering statistics.

Among 28 NHL goalies with at least 10 starts, he ranks 15th in both save percentage (.912) and GAA (2.72). But he’s been the workhorse the Maple Leafs need — in a season they were thought to be exercising load management — facing over 30 shots per game and giving Toronto a chance to win most nights.

He faltered against the Islanders (four goals on 29 shots), but before that he enjoyed a 4-0-2 stretch. In Andersen’s 15 starts, the Maple Leafs have grabbed 21 of 30 possible points.

Then there’s the ghost of Michael Hutchinson, who became a “ghost” recently by clearing waivers, disappearing from the roster and descending to the American Hockey League. Toronto was 0-4-1 in his starts, earning just one of a possible 10 points.

Hutchinson was near the bottom of the league in save percentage and GAA, though it’s debatable how much he was at fault, given the difficult circumstance of only playing the latter half of back-to-backs.

Now that burden is passed on to the unproven 26-year-old Kasimir Kaskisuo, who will make his NHL debut Saturday on the road against the Sidney Crosby-less Pittsburgh Penguins. Godspeed, Kasimir.

3. Injury woes

Last season, the terrific trio of Tavares, Zach Hyman and Mitch Marner skated together at even strength for more than 844 minutes across 71 games. According to Natural Stat Trick (and anyone who watched), they were dominant.

The Hyman-Tavares-Marner line held a +21 goal differential at even strength, including a 56.87 expected goals for percentage and a 56.28 high-danger chances for percentage.

This year, they’ve skated together for zero minutes across zero games. Injuries can have that sort of effect.

Hyman missed the first 19 games as he recovered from a knee injury, while Tavares broke a finger that sat for seven games with a broken finger. Now, Marner is out for at least 11 games (plus two he already missed) due to an ankle sprain.

All that is to say that when judging the current Maple Leafs, it should be acknowledged that their most consistent and effective line hasn’t had a chance to work.

The flip side, of course, is that every team deals with injuries. In a fast-paced, contact sport, bumps and bruises are baked into the equation.

The Colorado Avalanche, for example, have missed forwards Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog for 16 games combined (and counting). Still, the Avs are 11-5-2 and tied for second in the Western Conference.

Injuries are a bummer, no doubt. And it’d be nice to see the Maple Leafs at honest-to-goodness full health. But no one is going to feel sorry for them, either.

4. (Not so) special teams

  • Toronto Maple Leafs power play: 12-for-68, 17.6 percent (20th)
  • Toronto Maple Leafs penalty kill: 55-for-73, 75.3 percent (24th)

Through this early stage of the season, especially in games Tavares missed due to injury, the Maple Leafs’ listless power play was easy to spot. At one point, they suffered through a 2-for-32 drought.

They’ve since scored on three of their past 11 chances with the extra attacker, so that issue is no longer at crisis level (but for what it’s worth, Toronto should still try a simple fix for its power play).

Now, the more noticeable flaw is the penalty kill. The Maple Leafs allowed two goals in three attempts against the Islanders on Wednesday and have coughed up at least one power play goal in 11 of their past 13 games.

“We’ve just got to find confidence,” said Hyman, who led Toronto forwards in penalty kill time last year. “We’ve got to string some kills together…That’s what good PKs do, they get on a roll and they find their confidence and it feels like you don’t get scored on ever.”

Having Hyman back in the mix will help. But the Maple Leafs just lost Marner — their most-used penalty killer among forwards this year — and they’ve lost their confidence. The sooner they get both of those back, the better.

5. William the Wonderful

What a difference a year makes. This time last year, Nylander was a man without contract, holding out until as a restricted free agent until the bitter end (he wound up signing on the deadline, Dec. 3, for $45 million over six years).

When he did join the Maple Leafs, Nylander was a few steps behind and it showed up on his stat sheet — in 54 games, he registered just 27 points.

This year, Nylander was with Toronto from the start of camp and has enjoyed a nice start to his fourth full season (16 points in 20 games). That includes a current stretch of six goals and 11 points in his past 11 games.

Nylander is rolling right now and the unfortunate absence of Marner can be to his benefit. With Marner out, Nylander was bumped up to the top power play unit. It won’t last, but it provides a short-term opportunity for Nylander to increase his impact.

Wrapping up…

A pessimist could note that the Maple Leafs have only six regulation wins (all against teams currently ranked in the bottom seven of the NHL), the offense is dull and the starting goalie needs more support.

An optimist could note that 62 games remain, eight of the Maple Leafs’ 11 losses have come by one goal and the team has yet to play at full strength.

You’re welcome to draw your own conclusions. Here’s what the coach, Mike Babcock, and the captain, John Tavares, had to say.

Babcock (on if the team is frustrated): “I don't think that's been the case at all. I thought we've had good energy and I think we've done lots of really good things…Just stay the course, stay patient, take care of the puck and, if you do good things in life, good things happen.”

Tavares (on outlook through 20 games): “Well, I just think we’re not where we want to be. Obviously, we want to play a lot better, a lot more consistent. We’ve got to keep working to find a way…We’ve done good things but we know we’ve got to get the job done.”