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Titans vs. Chiefs: Final Odds, Spread Picks for AFC Championship Game 2020

Joe Tansey@JTansey90X.com LogoFeatured ColumnistJanuary 19, 2020

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JANUARY 12: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass in the first half during the AFC Divisional playoff game against the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium on January 12, 2020 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images)
Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs have an opportunity to avenge their Week 10 loss to the Tennessee Titans in Sunday's AFC Championship Game.

A victory over the No. 6 seed in the AFC would produce the franchise's first Super Bowl berth since 1969 and would avoid back-to-back defeats at this stage of the postseason.

Andy Reid's team faces the difficult challenge of stopping Titans running back Derrick Henry, who began his remarkable run with 188 rushing yards in the three-point win over the Chiefs. As we saw in the divisional round, Kansas City has the potential to strike back with offensive surges of its own, and its better balance could lead to a home victory at Arrowhead Stadium.

                           

AFC Championship Odds

Spread: Kansas City (-7)

Over/Under: 52.5

Moneyline: Kansas City (-335; bet $335 to win $100); Tennessee (+275; bet $100 to win $275)

              

Spread Pick

Kansas City (-7) 

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JANUARY 12: Running back Damien Williams #26 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs down field in the second half during the AFC Divisional playoff game against the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium on January 12, 2020 in Kansas City, Mi
Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images

Kansas City's ability to strike Tennessee's defense from the air and ground gives it the advantage going into Sunday afternoon.

The Chiefs earned their 434 total yards in the divisional round through 316 passing yards and 118 rushing yards.

Meanwhile, the Titans produced the majority of their offensive totals on the ground, as 217 of their 300 total yards came through Henry and others.

Since the start of December, the AFC's No. 2 seed has allowed more than 110 rushing yards on a single occasion, and that was to the Oakland Raiders in Week 13.

Henry is unlike any other running back the Chiefs have faced, but they do have experience in trying to tackle him from the Week 10 meeting at Nissan Stadium. Chiefs defensive end Frank Clark had strong words about the matchup with Henry, saying "he's just a big body," per NFL Network's James Palmer:

James Palmer @JamesPalmerTV

More from #chiefs Frank Clark in our one on one conversation on Friday about Derrick Henry. They’re be more from our conversation on @NFLGameDay tomorrow morning on @nflnetwork https://t.co/hmdPuFuYQS

Few defenders, including those on the Kansas City roster, have succeeded in taking down Henry by themselves since Week 10. The Alabama product has seven 100-yard performances in his previous eight appearances and has 96 carries in his past three contests.

The Houston Texans were the only team to hold Henry under 100 yards in that span in Week 15. In that matchup, linebackers Zach Cunningham and Benardrick McKinney combined for 22 tackles.

If Clark, who leads the Chiefs with 12 tackles for loss, and a few others are able to contain Henry before he breaks into open space, the Titans could struggle.

Ryan Tannehill has 160 passing yards in two playoff contests, and he is facing a Kansas City passing defense that entered the postseason by holding five straight opponents under 260 passing yards.

If the Kansas City secondary clamps down on the Tennessee receivers in long-distance situations, it could allow Mahomes and Co. to create separation on the scoreboard. The third-year signal-caller totaled a season high 446 passing yards versus the Titans in Week 10. He also has eight touchdowns and zero interceptions in three playoff appearances.

Were Mahomes to remain clean in the pocket, he could link up with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and others for some decent gains. The Chiefs should also receive a solid contribution from Damien Williams, who leads a rushing attack with a triple-digit total in each of the past three games.

If the home side keeps the visitors off balance with its offensive versatility, it should be able to break open a double-digit advantage at some point and hold on to cover the seven-point spread.

                       

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.