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Narco Submarines At All-Time High

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Last year yielded a bumper crop of narco-submarines, and it looks set to continue. These purpose-built vessels are one way Colombian cartels smuggle drugs towards the United States. The number discovered by authorities are at an all-time high. Based on open source intelligence there were 36 reported incidents in 2019. This compares to just two a decade earlier.

The reported incidents, when they are interdicted or discovered, are only the tip of the iceberg. Many more get through. And despite the higher rate of interdictions, they keep coming. So there is no sign that the losses are at a level which deters the criminals.

Interdiction rates are difficult to measure because we have half the picture. We can only count the ones which don’t get through. Speaking to people with knowledge of the subject, historically the percentage intercepted or found has been estimated to be between 5% and 15%. If we take a very conservative view and say that as many as 20% were either interdicted or otherwise discovered in 2019, extrapolating the reported incidents gives us an estimate of 180 narco submarine trips in total. It could be more.

Applying this logic across all years, since 2006 when the first ‘modern’ narco-submarines were discovered, suggests that over 800 have been built. My belief is that it could be much higher than that.

And 2019 was not just a bumper year, it was also a year with several new developments. Venezuela and Peru both had their first incidents. And in November the transatlantic route was finally proven to be real when one was discovered in Galicia, Spain.

There's usually a lag between the incident and its reporting so I'm cautious to put a number on the past few months. But 2020 is looking to be much like 2019. Already on January 2 a U.S. Customs and Border Protection aircraft discovered one in the Eastern Pacific. Also in January the U.S. Coast Guard cutter Vigilant intercepted two more narco-submarines, again in the Eastern Pacific. Both had very narrow hulls, known as a Very Slender Vessels, or VSVs. These have been a common style of narco-submarine for a few years.

And in February, Panamanian and Colombian forces interdicted a particularly large one. This had two inboard motors which is unusual but not unique. It had 5 tons of cocaine aboard, around 5-8 times the typical load. Meanwhile the Colombian Navy discovered yet another narco-submarine in the jungle. It was 55 feet long, excluding the outboard motors which would be attached to the back, and about 6 feet across.

So the flood of narco-submarines seems unabated. The vessels and operating patterns will continue to evolve, but most of all we are seeing an increase in numbers.

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