‘Bad Boys 3’: Will Smith’s Box Office Reign Requires No Disclaimer

Bad Boys For Life would still be this year's biggest domestic grosser until this weekend or next even absent coronavirus-related theater closures.

Since there is no box office to report, the yearly rankings remain frozen in time. The year’s biggest global and domestic grosser remains Bad Boys For Life, which earned $204.4 million domestic (a first for a “new” January release) and $425 million worldwide (behind only Kung Fu Panda 3’s $521 million global gross and American Sniper’s $556 million cume among all January wide releases) on a mere $90 million budget. The Will Smith/Martin Lawrence actioner could be the year’s biggest earner for quite a while. And yet its success should require no asterisk. It would have been the year’s biggest domestic grosser even absent the pandemic until maybe a week or so ago.

Yes, there is a certain skewed irony in how a global pandemic in 2020 has caused the biggest-grossing movie of the year to be, at the moment, an R-rated, star-driven action movie. For that matter, at the moment, Will Smith is having his first chart-topping offering since Independence Day led all releases with $306 million domestic and $817 million worldwide in 1996. But the surprising success for the surprisingly good Sony release is both a lesson in off-season release dates and in making sure that your legacy sequel/IP revamp has something of value to offer even to consumers who already have the previous franchise installments available at home at the touch of a button.

Its status as the year’s biggest global grosser is tied to the closure of Chinese theaters. If China had closed everything down a week or two later, at least long enough to have presumably massive opening weekends for their stacked New Year’s slate, the “top grossing movies of the year” list would be made up of the likes of The Rescue, Detective Chinatown 3 (Detective Chinatown 2 earned $585 million in 2018) and Jiang Ziya (a sequel to the dynamite and $720 million-plus grossing animated action fantasy Ne Zha). Once Chinese theaters open (for real) and start offering local newbies, well, the biggest movies of 2020 are going to be mostly Chinese blockbusters.

Sony’s Bad Boys For Life won its domestic title fair and square. Universal UHS ’s Dolittle bombed ($75 million domestic) and Warner Bros.’ Birds of Prey disappointed ($83 million domestic) well before the coronavirus started to threaten domestic movie theaters. And while Sega and Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog may have lost out on a few bucks in North America (and has yet to open in China), it still earned almost all of its $146 million domestic total before theaters closed. Ditto DreamWorks and Universal’s 1917, which lost the Best Picture Oscar to Parasite but still grossed a best-case-scenario $157 million domestic. Blumhouse’s Invisible Man was a hit, but it was aiming for $85 million domestic.

While the coronavirus dinged any post-opening legs for Pixar and Disney DIS ’s Onward, it was already a flop even before theaters shut down. The well-liked animated comedy opened with $39 million. Even legs like How to Train Your Dragon (which was unlikely, but humor me) would have led to a $195 million domestic total. Close, but no cigar. The first Hollywood release with a halfway decent shot at displacing Bad Boys For Life was maybe A Quiet Place Part II. But that would have required the Paramount horror sequel to nab its projected $60 million opening and then earn legs almost identical to A Quiet Place ($188 million from a $50 million launch), which would be $225 million.

That’s in the realm of “possible, but not likely.” Ditto Walt Disney’s Mulan, which was tracking at an over/under $85 million launch before its release was delayed. An $85 million launch, legs like Alice in Wonderland ($334 million/$116 million in 2010), Oz: The Great and Powerful ($234 million/$80 million in 2013), Cinderella ($201 million/$68 million in 2015) or Beauty and the Beast ($504 million/$174 million in 2017) would get Mulan to $244-$252 million domestic. That was very much in the realm of possibility. Ditto No Time to Die (which was supposed to open overseas this weekend and in North America next Friday), which almost certainly would have earned noticeably more than Spectre in North America.

Spectre earned $200 million from a $70 million launch in 2015. While it was only the second 007 flick to pass that milestone, after Skyfall’s unprecedented $304 million total in 2012, it stood to reason that No Time to Die would at least play like a “middle of the road” 007 film in terms of tickets sold, which would be around $215 million. Is it possible that the movie would be so bad that its domestic gross would end up closer to the $160-$168 million likes of Die Another Day, Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace (which were franchise high-water marks in their day)? Maybe, but Spectre was infamously bad and we all still showed up.

So, heading into the summer, the year’s biggest domestic earners probably would have been some combination of Mulan, No Time to Die and Bad Boys for Life. If Mulan, No Time to Die, A Quiet Place Part II ended up below $204 million, it’s still likely that Marvel’s Black Widow would have soared to infinity and beyond, even if its domestic total may have been closer to Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($259 million) than Thor: Ragnarok ($315 million). It is almost certain that Wonder Woman 1984 would have been the year’s first $300 million domestic grosser and the favorite to become the year’s biggest domestic earner (while F9 flirted with being the year’s biggest global grosser).

Bad Boys For Life is the year’s biggest global grosser because Chinese theaters closed. But the film’s rank as the year’s biggest domestic grosser would probably only just now be threatened even under non-coronavirus circumstances. Sonic the Hedgehog couldn’t do it, and Onward outright bombed. Its drop to second place presumes that Mulan’s sky-high tracking wasn’t merely as accurate as Solo’s initial sky-high tracking (it was pegged for a $170 million Fri-Mon launch but ended up with just $103 million). Bad Boys 3 could have remained 2020’s biggest grosser well into April if not May. Its victory requires no asterisk, especially if it gets topped by the movies that were likely always destined to surpass it.