In the first good news in weeks, Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday said coronavirus infections in the Golden State appear to have started a downward trend — but, as Californians have learned, it’s far too soon to celebrate.
The number of reported cases, people hospitalized with COVID-19 and the percent of tests coming back positive are dropping for the first time since a June spike in infections sent shock waves through the state’s recovery plans. Those are “encouraging signs,” Newsom said, but he warned Californians to not forget what happens when we get too comfortable.
“We can quickly find ourselves back to where we were just a few weeks ago, a month ago, with significant increases,” he said, “if we do not maintain our vigilance. If we do not maintain our focus and our commitment. Again, this virus is not going away.”
As of Sunday, California has seen an average of 8,539 new cases per day for the past week, according to data compiled by this news organization. That’s down 9% from the week before. As of Saturday, there were 7,761 patients hospitalized with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 cases — a 7.5% decrease from two weeks before, and the first sustained drop since May.
And a smaller percentage of coronavirus tests have positive results. As of July 24, an average of about 8% of tests indicated an infection over a seven-day period, Newsom said. Now, that number has dropped to 6%.
“Not where it needs to be, still too high,” Newsom said, “but, again, it is good to see this number trending down, not trending up.”
After Newsom shut down the economy in March, the number of new infections and COVID-19 hospitalizations remained fairly flat for weeks. Buoyed by those steady numbers, Newsom in May eased some of his reopening requirements, allowing more California counties to open certain retail stores, restaurants and other businesses. Cases and hospitalizations started to spike shortly after. And in mid-July, Newsom reversed course and ordered counties to once again close many indoor businesses.
Now that infections appear to have slowed once again, Newsom made it clear Monday he doesn’t intend to repeat history. The recent surge led the governor to shut down bars and require businesses such as restaurants, fitness centers and salons to operate outdoors in most of the state. He also mandated K12 schools in counties on the state’s watchlist — including those in the Bay Area — begin the school year online.
When he reopened the state last time, Newsom focused on drafting rules and regulations for businesses rather than addressing the behavior of individual people, he said. This time, as he loosens the rules, he intends to launch a focused campaign to educate the public about what’s expected of them.
It’s smart to lay out clear guidelines, as people can’t necessarily be counted on to take the right health precautions on their own, said Kathryn Leifheit, an epidemiologist and postdoctoral fellow at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health.
“As much as you can give people clear messaging on what’s OK and what’s not, I think that’s the way we can sustain social distancing and make it something people can incorporate into their day-to-day lives,” Leifheit said.
But educating Californians on what they can and can’t — or should and shouldn’t — do is no simple task, said Dr. Steven Goodman, associate dean of clinical and translational research and professor of epidemiology at Stanford University.
“We live in a very complicated time right now, and these same people that he wants to message are getting different messages from our federal government and all sorts of different media sites,” Goodman said.
The best way to prevent another spike in coronavirus cases might be to continue restricting the economy — but in moderation, Goodman said. Finding a middle ground where people are allowed to enjoy relatively low-risk, mostly outdoor activities could prevent them from going stir-crazy and jumping at their first chance to go to a crowded bar or a large, indoor party, he said.
“If we find this middle ground, and maybe we’re finding it now, where some degree of socialization is allowed in safe ways, we won’t get this radical jump (when we loosen the rules),” he said.
The other key factor in preventing history from repeating is to put stronger policies in place to protect those who are most vulnerable to the virus, Goodman said. That includes residents of assisted living facilities and prisons — both of which have seen deadly outbreaks throughout the state. And, as school gets underway as soon as this month, it will mean protecting students if and when they return to classrooms.
Like Newsom, Goodman is cautiously optimistic about the recent drop in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations.
“It’s been steadily climbing for the last four-to-six weeks, and now this is the first indication that we’re maybe turning the corner,” Goodman said. “But we won’t know until we get around the corner.”
Staff reporter Harriet Rowan contributed to this article.
