The past month of the COVID-19 pandemic in California has been a tale of two curves.
On Monday, the statewide seven-day average of new cases hit its lowest point in three weeks even as the average daily deaths climbed to a new all-time high. County health departments reported a total of 8,342 new cases and 110 coronavirus fatalities on Monday, according to data compiled by this news organization.
The average number of cases each day has fallen 11% in the past week and nearly 15% since its peak 10 days ago, to about 8,207 new cases per day.
In that time, though, the average number of deaths each day has soared 33%, reaching 137 per day over the past week. On July 25, the state’s recent peak in cases, the seven-day average stood at about 103 deaths per day. Since then, it has broken its mark for most deaths in a single day three times, most recently with 215 on Friday.
Epidemiologists have said the death curve of COVID-19 can lag the curve of cases by up to a month, meaning California could see daily death tolls continue to rise, or plateau at an alarming level, even as new cases begin to decrease.
Gov. Gavin Newsom cautioned against being overly optimistic about a relatively small, if encouraging, sample size of data that showed lower rates of positive tests, numbers of new cases and current hospitalizations than a week ago.
“One week does not make the kind of trend that gives us confidence to generate headlines,” Newsom said at his daily briefing Monday. “We’re looking forward to that, and we’ll need to see another few weeks of this kind of data to come in to feel more confident.”
The ascent of deaths began with those reported immediately following the July 4th holiday weekend, and they have been climbing steadily ever since. In a month’s time, the number of COVID-19 patients dying each day has more than doubled, from about 60 to 137.
About two weeks prior to spike in deaths, the pace of new cases began to pick up. On June 20, there were a little over 3,500 new cases being reported each day around the state. By July 4th, that had increased to almost 6,000 — a 70% spike in two weeks. By July 12, eight days later, it had increased another 70% to over 9,800. And after plateauing for about two weeks, the curve has been sloping down since July 25.
Of course, there are many more metrics than cases and deaths.
On a statewide level, those are trending in the right direction, too.
California added a net of 21 COVID-positive patients to its hospitals Sunday, but that number has still fallen by about 800, or 11%, since its peak on July 21.
The rate of positive tests has also fallen drastically in recent weeks. The average weekly positivity rate for the state hit 8% on July 25, but it had fallen to 6.1% after Monday’s test results. In the past five days alone, it has fallen by 0.9 percentage points.
But COVID-19 is a pandemic made up of regional outbreaks. While the Central Valley appears to be better off than a week ago, its current rates of cases, deaths and hospitalizations remain higher than anywhere else in California, including LA County at its peak.
Stanislaus (14), San Joaquin (12) and Tulare (11) counties — none of which has a population of more than 800,000 — all reported more deaths on Monday than Los Angeles County (9), though Mondays have historically been a slow reporting day in LA. But it was Riverside County, which hadn’t updated its data since Friday, that led all of California in reported deaths Monday, with 42, the most it has reported on any single day of the pandemic.
It was another double-digit day of deaths in the Bay Area, led by five in Marin County, where of the cumulative death toll climbed to 75, including 21 from the outbreak ripping through San Quentin State Prison. Contra Costa (2), Sonoma (2) and Napa (1) also added to their death tolls Monday. Santa Clara County has now gone three days without reporting a death from COVID-19.
There have been 86 deaths in the Bay Area in the past week, less than half that of the San Joaquin Valley (196), despite nearly double the population (8 million vs. 4.3 million); Los Angeles County has reported 326 coronavirus fatalities in the past week, 278% more than the Bay Area, despite a population about 25% larger.
San Joaquin County also overtook Alameda County in total cases Monday, making it the third Central Valley county with more cases than any in the Bay Area. Until recently, only Los Angeles and its neighboring counties with the five largest populations in California had reported more cases than Alameda (11,846) and Santa Clara (10,749) counties. But now the less-populous Kern (20,651), Fresno (15,759) and San Joaquin (11,885) counties all have, with Tulare (9,745) gaining ground fast.
California’s cumulative case count went over 520,000 on Monday, while its death toll hit 9,506, according to data compiled by this news organization. It has the most cases of any state in the country and third-most deaths, but when accounting for population, the state doesn’t crack the top-20 in total cases or top-25 for total deaths. On a per-capita basis, 14 states are adding cases at a higher rate than California, at about 20.7 per 100,000 people per day over the past week.
The national per-capita rate was just below California’s, at about 19 new cases per 100,000 Americans each day. The total case count in the U.S. on Monday was north of 4.7 million, while the death toll had reached 155,000, both numbers more than any other country in the world.
