Two weeks after California rolled out a new tiered reopening system, it’s still too early to know how the swath of business reopenings have affected coronavirus trends, a top health official said Thursday.
The state is closely watching a number of larger counties — like San Diego and Orange — that have allowed more indoor activities to resume, California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said in a press briefing. But he stopped short of providing any feedback on the new system, noting that infection increases likely aren’t measurable yet amid the state’s overall declining caseload.
“We’re looking for those trends now, and it is a bit early,” Ghaly said. “We’re really seeing the first set of counties just have just over 10 days of changes to their own conditions.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom kicked off the new reopening system on Aug. 31st, placing counties into four color-coded tiers depending on their coronavirus test positivity rates. Just a handful of counties started off in the less restrictive red, orange and yellow zones; since then, more have joined their ranks, including the Bay Area’s Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties. Thirty-three of the state’s 58 counties remain in the most restrictive purple zone.
Overall, California’s coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths have dramatically dropped off since a peak in mid-July, with deaths down about 35% and the new daily case average down about 65%, according to data compiled by this news organization.
As state officials track the movement of those trends commensurate with businesses like restaurants and movie theaters reopening, they also plan to home in on the deadly virus’ disparate impacts among different populations, Ghaly said. In the coming weeks, Newsom’s office will unveil another reopening metric focusing on equity — but what exactly it entails isn’t entirely clear.
Rather than merely measuring overall test positivity rates across counties, Ghaly said, the state may compare test positivity rates between higher- and lower-income neighborhoods and recommend changes to bridge the gap, perhaps through more culturally competent contact tracing or targeted testing.
Across California, Latinx and Black residents have contracted and died from COVID-19 at disproportionate rates. While Latinx people make up about 40% of the state’s population, for example, they represent about 60% of coronavirus cases and 50% of deaths, according to the California Department of Public Health.
The state has meanwhile struggled to find enough contact tracers who speak Spanish, Vietnamese and other languages to reach sick people and their families, this news organization reported. And across the Bay Area, community advocates said that immigrant and minority groups were cut out of the information loop when it came to testing opportunities.
“We’re learning every day about this disease and the impact on people, the disproportionate impact we’re seeing, the magnitude we focused on today,” Dr. Erica Pan, deputy director of the California Department of Public Health Center for Infectious Diseases and former Alameda County Health Officer, said during the briefing. “We all absolutely in public health are committed to the social determinants of health.”
It’s unlikely, however, that counties like Los Angeles could drop back down to a more restrictive tier because of the equity metric, Ghaly said. The state will also refrain from breaking up counties into different sectors, even if health disparities vary wildly between neighborhoods.
The state’s testing turnaround time has decreased to less than two days for about 88% of swabs, drastically lower than the weeks-long wait many Californians had previously experienced. State officials hope that improvement will help counties tamp down on clusters faster.
“We anticipate really working closely with counties to make sure that achieving the equity measure is within reach,” Ghaly said.
