When Gov. Gavin Newsom made national news this past week, signing an executive order to end the sale of all new gasoline-powered passenger vehicles in California in 15 years, he set in motion a massive transformation of the Golden State’s roadways that will impact everything from our garages to the state’s power grid.
“This is the most impactful step our state can take to fight climate change,” Newsom said Wednesday. “For too many decades, we have allowed cars to pollute the air that our children and families breathe. You deserve to have a car that doesn’t give your kids asthma. Our cars shouldn’t make wildfires worse and create more days filled with smoky air.”
The goal is steep. California has more electric vehicles on the road than any state, about 726,000. Still, they accounted for just 5.1% of new car registrations in California last year, according to the California New Car Dealers Association.
Newsom’s ambitious announcement raised questions for many Californians. Here are some answers.
Q: Can I keep driving my gasoline-powered car?
A: Yes. The governor’s executive order does not affect existing vehicles. Gas-powered and hybrid cars can still be bought and sold for the next 15 years. And that will continue after 2035 as long as they aren’t new vehicles. Specifically, Newsom’s order directs the California Air Resources Board to write rules “requiring increasing volumes of new zero-emission vehicles sold in the state towards the target of 100% of in-state sales by 2035.”
Q: This sounds radical. Is anywhere else doing this?
A: California is the first state in the U.S. But at least a dozen countries around the world already have similar laws with a 2030 target, including England, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Israel and India. Canada and France have announced a phase-out of internal combustion engines by 2040, and China is studying it. The reason: Vehicles are a huge source of fossil-fuel use, and no major drop in greenhouse gases can happen without addressing them.
Some automakers and the oil industry are opposed to such laws.
But other industries are increasingly on board. Last year, Amazon purchased 100,000 electric delivery vans. And this week Walmart announced it will use only renewable electricity by 2035 and will electrify its vehicles, including trucks, by 2040.
Q: I can’t afford an electric car. What will I do?
A: New electric vehicles are more expensive to buy than gasoline-powered vehicles. But federal and state tax credits help cut that difference, and overall, costs are coming down. The base price of a new 2020 Nissan Leaf, for example, starts at $31,600, a new electric Mini Cooper $29,900, and a new Tesla Model 3 $35,400. On Tuesday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said his company will sell a $25,000 electric car in three years. As battery prices keep falling, many analysts expect costs to keep dropping, the way that solar power and wind power have fallen in price as technology has made them more efficient.
A study done last year by the International Council on Clean Transportation concluded that electric vehicles will reach a similar price to gasoline-powered vehicles by 2026. Electric vehicles are much less expensive to drive, with maintenance and repair costs about half the price of gas vehicles, according to Consumer Reports, largely because they don’t need gasoline or oil changes.
Q: But I love the feeling and sound of a big engine. Do I have to move?
A: Used gasoline vehicles will be around for generations to come. You also will likely be able to buy a new one in another state and drive it to California. That said, other states and the federal government may have adopted similar rules to California’s in 15 years.
Q: Will there be enough charging stations?
A: There are an estimated 25,000 charging stations in California. The state will need hundreds of thousands, if not millions. Newsom’s order creates a huge market for companies that build and operate them. It’s unclear what will happen if they don’t keep pace. Already, however, many electric vehicle owners charge their cars at home.
Q: Can the power grid handle it? We’ve had a couple of blackouts this year.
A: Good question. Some experts believe California will have to expand its electricity supply by roughly 25% to meet the new demand from millions of electric cars, SUVs, minivans and pickups over the next 15 years. The state already receives 34% of its electricity from renewable sources like solar and wind.
But during the recent record heat wave, demand for air conditioning was so high as temperatures passed 110 degrees that there were electricity shortfalls as the sun went down and solar power generation went offline. More power plants will need to be built by 2035. And the state will need to ramp up rules requiring utilities to sign contracts with power generators to guarantee electricity during heat waves and to build more huge batteries to store solar power for use at night. Utilities likely will offer incentives, like cheaper prices, for people to charge electric vehicles during the day when there is plenty of power.
Q: Can the federal government stop this?
A: A lot depends on who wins the November election. Under the 1970 Clean Air Act, signed by President Richard Nixon, California was the only state allowed to set its own auto emissions standards as long as it received permission from the U.S. EPA because its smog was worse than other states. It has done that for decades. But last year, the Trump administration announced California could no longer do that. The state has sued. If Trump wins re-election, California’s autonomy will be in jeopardy. If Democrat Joe Biden wins, he will almost certainly allow the state to continue setting its own rules.
Q: Will this make any difference in reducing climate change?
A: Climate change is making droughts, forest fires and heat waves worse, scientists say. Passenger vehicles emit 28% of all the greenhouse gases in California, more than any other source. The production of gasoline and other fuels for them generates 11% more. California only generates 1% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. But California has the world’s fifth-largest economy and is a leader in technology and environmental policy.
More than a dozen other states and some nations regularly copy California’s air pollution and climate laws. Many of them are watching to see how California’s latest experiment works out.
