Bettors Not Supporting 0-2 NFL Teams In Week 3 Despite Profitable Returns

Many football fans and public bettors loved the NFL results last week as 14 of the 16 favorites won. That provided bettors and those that parlay those teams on the moneyline a solid return. However, favorites only covered the point spread in 7-of-16 games. There are 10 teams that remain winless at 0-2 following the Dolphins first win on Thursday night. As you’ll see in the chart and betting odds data below from FanDuel Sportsbook, a majority of bettors are not supporting 0-2 NFL teams in Week 3.

It’s hard for most bettors to get behind losing or ‘bad’ teams who are often less consistent in their level of play. Bettors like to feel good about their bets, and it feels better to wager on winning teams or in their mind the better teams. Bettors also like teams that score more, and prefer the adage that “the best defense is a good offense.”

In Week 2, scoring soared as 16 teams scored at least 30 points and games averaged 53.3 points per game. Over the last two NFL seasons, scoring averaged 45.6 and 46.6 points per game. A major reason why scoring is exploding could be fewer offensive holding calls. There was just 55 holding penalties called through the first two weeks after 177 were called in the opening two weeks last year.

In Week 3, there are five games with a posted over/under total of at least 50 points. That includes the two prime time games Sunday night and Monday night when the Saints and Packers decide a shootout followed by the most anticipated games of the season between the Ravens and Chiefs. Player props are also popular betting options, and the Cardinals vs Lions is also expected to be a shootout and two wide receivers in that contest are favorites to have the most receiving yards in Week 3 - DeAndre Hopkins of the Cardinals and Kenny Golladay in his 2020 debut for the Lions.

With legal sports betting now in 18 states and more than 33 million American’s wagering on NFL games this season, the interest in America’s most popular gambling sport is soaring like the league’s scoring. But a majority of those bettors formulate opinions based on results, and prefer to wager on favorites and better teams rather than underdogs or losing teams. In this week’s VSiN newsletter, the Vegas Stats & Information Network points out why bettors should get out of their comfort zone and bet on more winless teams in Week 3. Despite the perception of further doom and gloom for those winless teams and the media often painting a poor picture of these teams, the reality is that many of these 0-2 teams bring a better effort and outperform expectations, at least in the betting market.

Bettors are still not buying in on a Lions bounce back this week at Arizona.

“The Lions just look like they have nothing going,” Las Vegas South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews told VSiN editor and sports talk host Matt Youmans.

The Cardinals are taking the most bets at many sportsbooks including nine out of every 10 bets at FanDuel Sportsbook. More bets continue to come in closer to kickoff on all the Week 3 games, but as of Friday, FanDuel director of publicity Kevin Hennessy sent me the betting data and said, “More than 90% of the money wagered (handle) on the side and money line is on the Cardinals.”

In evaluating the Week 3 lines and percentage of money bet on the point spread (handle), you can see that most 0-2 teams are getting limited support. The winless Lions, Broncos, Jets and Vikings are among the most bet against teams.

Recent Season Results For 0-2 NFL Teams

Still, as VSiN notes in their research and ATS documenation, teams that lost their first two games and start the season 0-2 are 33-16 against the spread (ATS) in their third games since 2014. That’s a 67% success rate, and if you remove the contests between two 0-2 teams, those winless teams have been even better going 28-11 ATS (71%).

There is no real difference in how those winless teams perform ATS in home or away games. However, what’s interesting is that teams that are 0-2 and allow an average of 24 points per game (PPG) or more are even better bets despite the poor scoring defense to start the season. The perception is that those ‘bad’ teams are going to get beat badly again. Yet, those teams are 27-9 ATS (78%) since 2014 when also removing the match-ups between 0-2 teams.

Winless teams allowing at least 30 points per game thus far include: Carolina, Houston, Detroit, Minnesota and Atlanta, who has allowed a league-high 39 points per game but played top efficient and scoring offensive teams Seattle and Dallas the first two weeks. Other winless teams allowing at least 24 points per game include the New York Jets and Cincinnati. Miami fit the same scenario, and the Dolphins won outright as an underdog Thursday night.

In addition, teams that failed to cover the point spread in their first two games are 22-7 against the spread (ATS) since 2016 and 21-6 ATS when you removed match-ups between two 0-2 ATS teams.

Teams that are winless ATS through two games include: Carolina, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, NY Jets and Philadelphia. All of those teams except the Eagles are underdogs, and the Eagles host the winless Bengals. Both Minnesota and Tennessee are 0-2 ATS as well and match-up against each other this week.

The Titans have won both their games by 3-points or less while the Vikings have been blown out in both contests. Minnesota would have been near a 3-point favorite in Week 1 and now the Vikings are a 3-point home underdog. That’s how the betting market changes and results or performances sway perception as the bookmakers adjust power ratings and point spreads while taking into account injuries that are so prevalent on rosters each week.

As you evaluate the match-ups and Week 3 NFL odds, don’t be surprised when some of the ugly NFL underdogs respond with a stronger effort and bite. Bettors have been forewarned.

You can bet on it.