EDMONTON, ALBERTA - SEPTEMBER 19: Miro Heiskanen #4 of the Dallas Stars skates in the first period ... [+]
It may go south for the Dallas Stars Saturday night. Digging out of a 3-1 series deficit is challenging for any team, especially in the Stanley Cup Final. And doing so against the extremely talented Tampa Bay Lightning, a club a year removed from tying the NHL’s regular-season wins record at 62, could be a hurdle too high for the Stars to jump.
However, if there’s one thing to glean from the NHL’s pandemic-altered postseason, it’s that the “kids are alright.” The Stars have watched several young players, such as Joel Kiviranta, Denis Gurianov, Miro Heiskanen, Jason Dickinson and Roope Hintz emerge in a way that inspires confidence in the club’s future.
That group has generated 65 points in this postseason, roughly 32 percent of Dallas’s total point production. It’s surprisingly identical to the 32 percent from the Stars’ four biggest cap hits — Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov, Joe Pavelski and Tyler Seguin.
What’s even more important, though, is how the young crop of talent accumulated those numbers. Kiviranta netted a Game 7 hat trick against the Avalanche in the second round, powering Dallas’ upset over Colorado. Gurianov scored four goals in the series clincher against Calgary and netted the overtime winner in Game 5 against the Vegas Golden Knights. Heiskanen, the club’s playoff leader in points, dropped four points facing Calgary in an elimination game. Hintz has notched a point in each of the Stars’ three series-clinching games this postseason, and Dickinson contributed a goal in Dallas’ Game 1 shutout victory against Tampa Bay.
The need for Dallas to get younger has been present for some time now. The Stars roster had an average age of 29.4 this season, according to Hockey-Reference.com, the second-highest in the NHL. In the last five years, the Stars have been one of the 10 oldest teams four out of five times.
Now, those numbers could be skewed by aging veterans scattered across the roster. But for Dallas, its star-studded core is aging quickly. Radulov (34) and Benn (31) are already on the wrong side of 30, which according to research from Eric Tulsky, Dawson Sprigings and Evolving Wild (independent of each other), is when forwards fall off a cliff in terms of performance. Prized free-agent acquisition Joe Pavelski has had an impressive 18-point postseason. But at age-35, he recorded the worst regular-season points per game number of his career (0.46).
The history of past champions favors teams with average ages in their mid-20s. The last 54 Stanley Cup champions, according to SportingCharts.com, had an average age of 27.21. The average of the most recent ten is 27.27. It’s not a universal truth; plenty of players stay productive in their 30s. But if the Stars want to remain competitive, they will have to phase out some of their veteran talent.
It’s a problem that will partially solve itself. Thirty-five-year-old Corey Perry is an upcoming free agent, leaving his 13:43 average time-on-ice up for grabs among other skaters on the roster. Anton Khudobin and Andrej Sekera, both 34 years old, also hit unrestricted free agency this offseason. However, the rest of the roster is mostly static and under contract for 2020-21.
Dallas has battled mediocrity over the past decade, making the playoffs three times since 2008-09 and never advancing past the second round (not including this season). Even if the Stars does falter under the weight of a dominant Lightning club, they can take solace in knowing their emerging young core positions them to be one of the elite Western Conference teams for years to come.
