The Anxious Person’s Guide to the 2020 Election
Instructions
To reveal the answer, click on the question
When is Election Day?
Nov. 3, 2020.
And also…right now. In many states, early voting is well underway, with tens of millions of ballots already cast.
Should I vote early if my state allows it?
Sure! Procrastination is for term-papers and major life decisions.
Get your “I Voted” sticker before the market is flooded.
Is it too late to register to vote?
It depends on your state. For those answers and many more, check out The Times’s comprehensive voter guide.
Will my vote be counted if I vote by mail?
Only if it’s received on time. That’s why sending in your ballot just before the final deadline is a risk.
A Times analysis found that in nearly three dozen states, voters can request ballots so close to Election Day that it may not be possible for them to receive and return their ballots in time to be counted. There is also the nontrivial matter of President Trump’s longstanding campaign against the Postal Service, which has fueled concerns about the system itself being hampered.
States With Tight Ballot Deadlines
AK
ME
You may not have enough time to vote by mail in these states
if you wait until the deadline to request or postmark your ballot.
VT
NH
MA
WA
MT
ND
MN
WI
MI
NY
CT
ID
OR
WY
SD
IA
IL
IN
OH
PA
NJ
RI
NV
CA
UT
CO
NE
KS
KY
WV
VA
DC
MD
DE
AZ
NM
OK
AR
MO
TN
SC
NC
TX
LA
MS
AL
GA
HI
FL
States With Tight Ballot Deadlines
You may not have enough time to vote by mail in these
states if you wait until the deadline to request or
postmark your ballot.
ME
AK
VT
NH
WA
MT
ND
MN
WI
MI
NY
CT
MA
ID
OR
WY
SD
IA
IL
IN
OH
PA
NJ
RI
NV
CA
UT
CO
NE
KS
KY
WV
VA
DC
MD
DE
AZ
NM
OK
AR
MO
TN
SC
NC
LA
GA
TX
MS
AL
HI
FL
States With Tight Ballot Deadlines
You may not have enough time to vote by mail in these
states if you wait until the deadline to request or
postmark your ballot.
ME
AK
VT
NH
WA
MT
ND
MN
WI
MI
NY
CT
MA
ID
OR
WY
SD
IA
IL
IN
OH
PA
NJ
RI
NV
CA
UT
CO
NE
KS
KY
WV
VA
DC
MD
DE
AZ
NM
OK
AR
MO
TN
SC
NC
LA
GA
TX
MS
AL
HI
FL
Will it be risky to vote in person on Election Day?
Throughout the modern history of American voting, no presidential election has required phrases like “if you’re comfortable braving the deadly virus.” But here we are.
Still, with faithful adherence to public health guidelines like masking and social distancing, the dangers of voting in person are certainly reduced. Voting during off-peak hours may also help you avoid crowding and lines.
Is voter fraud real?
It is exceptionally rare in the United States. But exaggerated or outright false accounts of voter fraud are often invoked to impose more restrictions on who can vote and on how to vote.
The few cases of documented voter fraud — a municipal election in New Jersey this year, a congressional election in North Carolina in 2018 — often receive outsize attention because of a longstanding focus on the subject in conservative politics and media.
Where are voter suppression tactics being used?
Voting rights advocates have pointed to Gov. Greg Abbott’s limiting of ballot drop boxes to one per Texas county — including for the 4.7 million people of Harris County — as a potential example of voter suppression.
But they say the list hardly ends there. Long lines, either due to voting-machine malfunctions or consolidated polling locations, have been cited as possible sources of suppression in Georgia and elsewhere across the country, especially as these incidents tend to disproportionately affect nonwhite voting populations.
Another well-worn suppression tactic is disinformation. Despite some efforts by social media companies to curb the spread of false information, the 2020 election season has already produced a host of disinformation campaigns around voting, particularly regarding mail ballots.
What are poll watchers?
Traditionally, many states allow regular citizens to serve as poll watchers and observe polling places for potential issues, which they can then report to local election authorities. Issues might include voters being incorrectly turned away or more systemic problems like broken machines, ballot shortages or excessively long lines.
But poll watchers are prohibited from taking any action that may intimidate a voter, and Democrats say that the Trump campaign’s call for an “army” of poll watchers risks crossing that line. In Pennsylvania, where the Trump campaign has videotaped Philadelphia voters depositing ballots in drop boxes, the state attorney general has already warned that the action could amount to illegal voter intimidation.
What is a naked ballot?
It is less titillating than it sounds. But the particulars are important: A naked ballot is a ballot that is missing its so-called secrecy envelope. Yes, some states require two envelopes to mail back a ballot: an outer envelope with the postage and election office information, and an inner envelope to protect the secrecy of the vote.
Secrecy envelopes are not required in all states, but in states where they are, skipping them is among the most common errors voters make. Naked ballots are a particularly big concern this year in Pennsylvania, which does not allow voters who erred on their absentee ballot to make any corrections.
Will there be a clear winner on election night?
Maybe not, given the number of battleground states and the prospect of counting delays in places where local laws will prevent officials from processing mail-in ballots before Election Day. Election officials in swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan have said they hope to finish counting nearly all ballots within three days of Election Day.
But patience will be key on Nov. 3 — and may be elusive in many homes across the country, including the executive residence in Washington. Unless, of course, one side wins a victory large and obvious enough to see clearly on election night, rendering any delays in individual states far less consequential.
What happens if one side does not accept the results?
Four years ago, Mr. Trump cried fraud in an election he won. (His baseless argument: He would have won the popular vote, too, but for Democratic shenanigans.) He has given his opponents no reason to believe that he would accept electoral defeat without incident. Whether he — or Joe Biden, if the situation were reversed — could do anything about a contested outcome is a matter for the courts, in theory.
Wouldn’t that be bad?
It would not be a banner turn for the republic.
What role could the Supreme Court play in the election?
If the results are in question, and even if they are not, in the eyes of most election officials, the courts could come into play. The president has made clear that he envisions a potentially active role for them, arguing that the Senate was obligated to confirm now-Justice Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court before Election Day so that a full nine-justice court could resolve any disputes.
He has also suggested that he expects the court to agree with his baseless accusations that Democrats are trying to rig the election. Of course, the courts have been disappointing presidents for generations, so there’s no guarantee he’d be pleased with their decisions in this hypothetical.
Is it possible that the House of Representatives could end up deciding the election?
Yes, but it’s not likely.
The fate of the election rests with state delegations in the House if no candidate wins 270 electoral votes (including, say, if there is a 269-269 tie). Democracy! Not for the faint of heart.
What are Biden’s chances of beating Trump?
The polls have him ahead. And the polls, as both parties like to remind their voters, had Hillary Clinton ahead four years ago. There is reason to think this time is different: Mr. Biden’s national lead is generally larger, and he is looking competitive across a wide swath of states that the president won comfortably in 2016.
Support for Biden and Trump
41% Trump
National
50% Biden
9% Other, Don’t Know
or Refused
States where Trump won by more than 5 percentage points in 2016
43%
Iowa
46%
Ohio
45%
44%
Georgia
45%
45%
50%
Support for Biden and Trump
41% Trump
National
50% Biden
9% Other, Don’t Know
or Refused
States where Trump won by more than
5 percentage points in 2016
Iowa
46%
43%
Ohio
45%
44%
Georgia
45%
45%
50%
Support for Biden and Trump
41% Trump
National
50% Biden
9% Other, Don’t Know
or Refused
States where Trump won by more than
5 percentage points in 2016
Iowa
46%
43%
Ohio
45%
44%
Georgia
45%
45%
50%
What are the chances that the pollsters have it wrong again?
Greater than zero, which has Democrats characteristically anxious. Pollsters, especially at the state level, have worked to improve their methods this time. But of course, it’s an inexact science. Whether any polling errors are large enough to erase the current Trump deficit in public surveys is another matter.
What are the swing states to watch this election?
The list is long, which is one of the reasons Republicans are nervous. The most intuitive Democratic pickup opportunities are in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the three states that swung the last presidential election. Mr. Trump won them in 2016 by fewer than 80,000 votes combined.
But Democrats also see opportunities across a range of states — Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, among others — that Mr. Trump almost certainly needs to carry to keep his job. Even some states once thought to be reliably red this year, like Texas, Ohio and Iowa, have produced tight polling.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trump hopes to play offense in ostensibly blue states, like Minnesota and New Hampshire, that Mrs. Clinton won in 2016.
Battleground States
AK
ME
Tossup
Lean Democratic
VT
NH
MA
WA
MT
ND
MN
WI
MI
NY
CT
ID
OR
WY
SD
IA
IL
IN
OH
PA
NJ
RI
NV
CA
UT
CO
NE
KS
KY
WV
VA
DC
MD
DE
AZ
NM
OK
AR
MO
TN
SC
NC
TX
LA
MS
AL
GA
HI
FL
Battleground States
Tossup
Lean Democratic
AK
ME
VT
NH
WA
MT
ND
MN
WI
MI
NY
CT
MA
ID
OR
WY
SD
IA
IL
IN
OH
PA
NJ
RI
NV
CA
UT
CO
NE
KS
KY
WV
VA
DC
MD
DE
AZ
NM
OK
AR
MO
TN
SC
NC
TX
LA
MS
AL
GA
HI
FL
Battleground States
Tossup
Lean Democratic
AK
ME
VT
NH
WA
MT
ND
MN
WI
MI
NY
CT
MA
ID
OR
WY
SD
IA
IL
IN
OH
PA
NJ
RI
NV
CA
UT
CO
NE
KS
KY
WV
VA
DC
MD
DE
AZ
NM
OK
AR
MO
TN
SC
NC
TX
LA
MS
AL
GA
HI
FL
Why should swing states get to have all the fun?
Massachusetts, Wyoming, Tennessee — great places all. Functional irrelevance in presidential elections does not diminish their natural beauty or cultural import.
What is Trump’s path to victory?
It looks a lot like 2016.
While the president likes to suggest he is competing everywhere, even in solidly blue states like New York, this is mostly fantasy. Mr. Trump’s most realistic path involves holding most of his gains from four years ago, when his upset victories in former Democratic strongholds made the difference. He can afford to lose a swing state or two that he won last time, depending on the combination, but any more slippage would effectively doom him.
Is Biden really campaigning from his basement?
The president has accused his opponent of hiding from voters with virtual events and a low-key public schedule. This isn’t accurate; Mr. Biden has strayed from his Delaware home frequently in recent months, especially since accepting the Democratic nomination in August.
But two points are beyond dispute: First, the candidates have conducted pandemic-era campaigning quite differently, with Mr. Trump showing little patience for health restrictions, even after contracting the coronavirus himself. And second, most medical experts find the Democrats’ approach — fewer crowded indoor events, a greater emphasis on masks and distancing — to be more responsible.
What are the major policy differences in the campaign?
Where to start?
Health care, climate, immigration, guns, taxes, religious liberty. But nothing has resonated as powerfully as the coronavirus pandemic — and polls show voters taking a broadly negative view of the president’s stewardship on this score.
Who’s going to win the Senate?
It’s looking like a tossup, though Democrats are bullish about their position.
A handful of Republican incumbents in purple or even bluish states were always going to have a difficult road. But what has Democrats most excited is their apparent competitiveness — and often prolific fund-raising — across states that have traditionally tilted to the right, from Montana to South Carolina. The expanded map means that Democrats don’t need to run the table in every close race to flip the Senate.
Senate Seat Ratings
7
Tossup
3
Lean Democratic
4
Lean Republican
45
Solid Democratic
41
Solid or Likely Republican
33 Democrats and two independents
who caucus with the Democratic Party
are not up for re-election.
30 Republicans are not
up for re-election.
50%
Senate Seat Ratings
7 Tossup
3 Lean Democratic
4 Lean Republican
41
Solid or Likely
Republican
45
Solid Democratic
33 Democrats and
two independents
who caucus with the
Democratic Party are not
up for re-election.
30 Republicans are not
up for re-election.
50%
Senate Seat Ratings
7 Tossup
3 Lean Democratic
4 Lean Republican
41
Solid or Likely
Republican
45
Solid Democratic
33 Democrats and
two independents
who caucus with the
Democratic Party are not
up for re-election.
30 Republicans are not
up for re-election.
50%
What are the key Senate races to watch?
If Mr. Biden wins — and Kamala Harris, who would be his vice president, becomes the tie-breaking vote in a prospective 50-50 Senate — Democrats will need to gain a net total of three seats to take control.
The party sees prime seat-flipping opportunities in Colorado and Arizona. One Democratic incumbent, Senator Doug Jones of Alabama, is viewed as an underdog in his race. Republicans see another Democrat, Senator Gary Peters of Michigan, as potentially vulnerable, too.
So where might Democrats find the extra wins they’d need? Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Montana, South Carolina, even Kansas. They don’t need to win them all. But they are effectively forcing Republicans to play defense across the map.
What about the House of Representatives?
Democrats are viewed as the clear favorites to retain control of the House and even add to their majority. And Speaker Nancy Pelosi hopes that a Democratic House, which has served as a check on the Trump administration these last two years, will instead become a governing partner alongside a Biden administration and a Democratic Senate.
Will the Russians interfere again?
They seem to be trying.
While the Trump administration — if not the president himself — has stressed that there will be “no tolerance” for Russian interference, intelligence officials and private firms have already detected evidence of Russian influence operations well ahead of November. The effects of these efforts are uncertain, but their existence is not.
Will a late surprise shake things up?
Maybe! There is some precedent, though it is hard to envision a role for a discarded F.B.I director this time. But as a general principle, 2020 has not proceeded predictably. Why start now?
Has Biden said he would only serve one term if elected?
No, but some Democrats have chosen to infer as much. Mr. Biden, who will be 78 on Inauguration Day, has called himself a “bridge” to the next generation of party leaders, implying that he sees himself as something of a transitional figure. But he has never been explicit about the length of this bridge.
I know there have been a lot of lawsuits over voting this year. What’s going on?
Believe it or not, it’s Republicans and Democrats fighting.
Democrats have generally sought to expand voting access or ease restrictions to make voting safer in a pandemic. For example, in Wisconsin — which requires all absentee ballots to be signed by both the voter and a witness — Democrats have argued that the two-person mandate needlessly increases virus exposure, particularly for older voters who live alone.
Democrats have also been fighting for fewer restrictions on mail ballots, more drop boxes, more options for voters to fix their ballots, more polling locations and longer early-voting periods, among other pushes. Republicans have largely been fighting against rule changes that would expand voting access under the umbrella of protecting the integrity of the election.
This is all going to be a mess, isn’t it?
That is certainly one of two possibilities.
Okay but really: When will we know who won?
Unclear.
Patience is a virtue. And isn’t the true purpose of election night the friends we made along the way? (No. No, it’s not.)