The Warriors are aware of the numbers. Night after night, the starting lineup gets out-scored and puts the team into an early hole. Golden State has so far tried to take the long view. That may have to change.
Including a 12-point deficit to start Saturday’s 127-108 loss to the Jazz in Utah, this Warriors starting unit has been outscored by a total of 73 points this season.
Put simply, this is a problem.
“Work in progress obviously,” said Stephen Curry of the starting lineup, which consists of him, Kelly Oubre Jr., Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and James Wiseman. “The numbers aren’t great. Just trying to figure it out.”
Over the last few weeks, head coach Steve Kerr has remained steadfast in his approach, reasoning that the starting lineup needs time to jell if Golden State is going to reach its ceiling as a playoff team with a top-10 defense.
But Kerr has also said that rotations remain fluid, and has marked the 20-game point (Jan. 30 vs. Detroit) as a time when he could consider more dramatic changes. However, after two bad losses by a combined 34 points, the Warriors could determine changes are needed now.
“We’ve got to assess everything,” Kerr said. “As a staff, as an organization, how we’re looking at the season, what our goals are. Everything is up for adjustments.”
Digging into the numbers, it’s clear that Wiseman, the 19-year-old rookie still on the steepest part of his learning curve, is the biggest swing factor. Swap Wiseman out for the more experienced Kevon Looney, and that lineup is plus-28 in 26 minutes. A small sample size, but it makes sense why they have been more effective. Looney is a savvy defender and elite screen-setter who has timing and chemistry with Curry.
But will Kerr and his staff decide to sacrifice some of Wiseman’s early development to win games now?
That’s an easier question to answer when sitting on a cushion in the wins column. For the Warriors, now a .500 team at 8-8, that cushion no longer exists.
Below, more takeaways from the game.
THE GOBERT EFFECT: Facing perhaps the best paint protector in the NBA and the former Defensive Player of the Year in Jazz center Rudy Gobert, the Warriors settled for bad shots and were coaxed into areas of the floor where they do not thrive.
The Warriors did take 39 3-pointers against the Jazz (making 14) and shot 45.2% overall. But more than 19% of their shots came in the mid-range area between the paint and the 3-point line (compared to 13% for the season). Gobert forced several of Golden State’s drivers to hesitate. Instead of kicking out to a teammate, they often pulled up early.
“I think the most disappointing aspect of this game and the last game is the number of times we did not move the ball on to the other side of the floor,” Kerr said. “We’ve got to understand that, especially when you’re playing against (New York Knicks center) Mitchell Robinson or Rudy Gobert, you’ve got to look to get the ball swung. You can’t just keep attacking a shot blocker or pulling up for mid-range shots. Has to be drive and kick, that’s the name of the game.”
Added Green: “We got to find an identity as a team. Sometimes we move the ball, sometimes we don’t. Sometimes we defend, sometimes we don’t. Are we gonna be a ball movement team or an iso team?”
TROUBLE DEFENDING THE 3-POINT LINE: Entering the game, the Warriors ranked 15th in the league with opponents shooting 36.6% from 3-point range. The Jazz, however, entered the game as the best 3-point shooting team in the league (averaging 16.5 makes per game) and are rolling, having now won eight straight.
They made 20 of 50 shots from beyond the arc, getting five from Mike Conley and three made 3-pointers from four others. With so many shooters on the floor for Utah, Golden State’s defense was frazzled and disorganized, often late to close out or not rotating at all.
“Utah came out on fire, they executed their offense beautifully,” Kerr said. “We weren’t rotating well, but they really spaced us out.”
Defending the 3-point line has been a recurring issue for the Warriors all season long. Back out San Antonio’s 4-for-33 anomaly of a performance from deep this week, and the Warriors are giving up 38.4% from beyond the arc, which would rank in the bottom seven of the league.
“We have to be a little bit smarter on what the other team does well in terms of our defensive strategy,” Curry said.
CURRY PASSES REGGIE MILLER: With his falling-away 3-pointer in the third quarter, Curry passed Reggie Miller for second place on the NBA’s career 3-point list.
Curry, who has made 2,562 3-pointers for his career, is behind only Ray Allen (2,973) on the all-time list. Miller made 2,560 3-pointers over 1,389 regular season games during his 18-year NBA career. Curry needed only 715 games to eclipse Miller’s mark in 11-plus seasons.
At his current pace, Curry would need little more than 100 games to catch Allen. In this shortened 72-game season, Curry would likely not challenge Allen’s record until the second half of the 2021-22 season. After the game, Miller with his son, Ryker, propped on his lap, surprised Curry on the postgame video conference and told him, “You are an inspiration to so many little ones like mine.”
