Super Bowl 2021: Final Predictions, Odds Before AFC, NFC Championship Games

The Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs are in good positions to extend the run of top seeds advancing to the Super Bowl.

Since 2013, 10 No. 1 seeds moved on to the NFL's championship tilt from conference championship weekend.

If the Chiefs and Packers prevail, they would set up the fifth Super Bowl matchup between top seeds during that span. However, a newcomer on the championship stage in this era and a six-time Super Bowl champion stand in their ways.

Both sets of conference championship participants have familiarity with each other, which could help the Chiefs down the Buffalo Bills for the second time. For Green Bay, the key is to avoid the mistakes it committed in its regular-season loss to Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Super Bowl LV Odds

Kansas City: +190 (bet $100 to win $190)

Green Bay: +200

Buffalo: +400

Tampa Bay: +450

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Prediction

Kansas City vs. Green Bay

Most of the attention in the AFC Championship Game will be paid to the quarterback battle between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

However, the difference-maker could be the play of the Kansas City defense that limited the Bills to 206 total yards in Week 6.

The Chiefs have not allowed an opponent to reach more than 300 passing yards since they faced Brady in Week 1, and their defensive starters held their past two foes under 20 points. Kansas City played most of its backups in the Week 17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

Six of the nine teams that entered Arrowhead Stadium this season left with a maximum of 20 points, including the Houston Texans, New England Patriots and Cleveland Browns. If the Chiefs turn in another strong defensive performance, Mahomes and Co. should take advantage of that and create some separation on the scoreboard.

Kansas City's offense is due for a high point total at home after failing to score more than 22 points in each of its past four contests at Arrowhead Stadium. The AFC's No. 1 seed averaged 32 points in its first five home contests.

A score in the 30s or 40s is possible for Kansas City based on Buffalo's performances against playoff qualifiers.

Three of the Bills' four highest point concessions occurred against playoff teams, and they averaged 26.8 points conceded on their travels.

Tampa Bay's defense has not been perfect on the road, either, as it allowed 20 points in eight of its 10 trips away from Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers allowed 43 combined points in their first two games of the postseason, and those concessions came against quarterbacks who are not at the level of Aaron Rodgers right now.

Taylor Heinicke was thrown into the Washington lineup because of Alex Smith's injury and Dwayne Haskins' release, and Drew Brees did not look like his old self in the divisional round.

Rodgers is playing at an MVP level, and he has been much better since the Packers' 38-10 defeat to the Bucs in Week 6. Since that contest, Rodgers has thrown three interceptions in 12 games. He was picked off twice by the NFC South side.

The Green Bay quarterback tossed three or four touchdown passes on 12 occasions and lost once at Lambeau Field this season. Rodgers' effectiveness inside the pocket and the lack of concessions from the Green Bay defense could be the perfect combination to win the NFC Championship Game.

Green Bay's past four opponents at Lambeau Field failed to reach the 20-point mark, and only one of them recorded more than 300 total yards.

If the Packers follow a similar blueprint Sunday afternoon, they could be headed to the Super Bowl for the first time under head coach Matt LaFleur.

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.

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