The Hotline mailbag is published each Friday. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline. Due to volume — and in some cases, the need for research — not all questions will be answered the week of submission. Thanks for your understanding. Some questions have been edited for brevity.
Are Pac-12 football stadiums going to be full in the fall and will revenue recover? — @LawsonFKnight
The second question is easier to answer than the first: We expect revenue to fully recover in the 2023 fiscal year, assuming the new normal remains in place.
For the upcoming sports cycle, in 2021-22, revenue should be close enough to normal in the upcoming fiscal year that the gap doesn’t materially disrupt athletic department operations.
All of it, of course, is tied to football attendance.
Think of a typical Pac-12 athletic department as generating $100 million in revenue annually.
At least 75 percent flows from three income streams: ticket sales for football, donations tied to football, and media rights for football.
Examples of football ticket revenue from the 2019 season:
Cal: $6.5 millionWashington State: $8 millionUtah: $15 millionOregon: $21 million
So that provides us with a framework from which to address the upcoming season.
We fully believe crowds of substantial size will be permitted in Pac-12 stadiums this fall, but remember: The conference office has no control over stadium capacity; that’s a state/local health issue.
Not surprisingly, the West Coast states are taking a more conservative approach than the other three.
But as of now, the prospects are encouraging:
— California is allowing fans to attend sporting events this spring, with capacity tied to the amount of COVID spread locally.
For instance, counties operating in the so-called orange tier, which includes Los Angeles and most of the Bay Area, can allow 33 percent capacity.
If they move into the yellow tier (least restrictive) by the fall, stadiums can fill to 67 percent.
Currently, there is no option for 100 percent.
— Oregon is using a similar approach, with capacity tied to community spread.
As of today, Lane County (Eugene) is operating in the least restrictive level, meaning the Ducks could fill Autzen Stadium to 50 percent capacity.
But Benton County (Corvallis) is in the highest risk tier, limiting the Beavers to 15 percent.
— Washington is allowing 25 percent capacity for outdoor sporting events.
However, the county-by-county plan could result in different restrictions for the Huskies (King County) and Cougars (Whitman County) come the fall.
— In Salt Lake County, entertainment and recreational venues can operate at full capacity.
The Utes are permitting 6,500 fans for their spring game and are seemingly on track for full capacity at Rice-Eccles Stadium in the fall.
— The situation brightened for Arizona State and Arizona late last month when Gov. Doug Ducey loosened restrictions, allowing the Diamondbacks to fill Chase Field to about 50 percent capacity.
— In Colorado, the current variance limits the Rockies to less than 50 percent capacity, but Gov. Jared Polis recently indicated Coors Field would be “fully packed” for the MLB All-Star Game in July.
That suggests CU could have a capacity crowd at Mile High for the Week Two showdown against Texas A&M.
Bottom line for the Pac-12:
There will be spectators in every stadium, but the crowd sizes likely will vary widely — as will the resulting revenue from ticket sales and concessions.
Then again, the crowd sizes vary widely in a normal season.
Why should we trust the *rosy* out-year profit projections from the Pac-12 Networks? — @BruinSharman
Good question. The skepticism is certainly warranted given the decade-long underperformance.
Using the middle-tier projections provided to the schools prior to launch in 2012, the networks have missed the revenue mark by more than $250 million over their lifetime.
However, the current expectations for the 2022 fiscal year— more than $3 million per school, as we reported last week — seem reasonable in two broad respects:
— Approximately 60 percent of the annual revenue is tied to football.
If there are full seasons played in 2021 and beyond, and assuming basketball isn’t disrupted in any manner, then the top-line number should approach pre-pandemic levels.
— Meanwhile, expenses have been slashed, especially with regard to head-count levels and production costs — and those aren’t coming back.
Conference executives will be highly motivated to make the cash flow as attractive as possible before the media rights negotiations begin in 12-18 months.
Any surplus must be spun off to the campuses.
What year will Utah finally get to the Rose Bowl? — @Vakaviti
It depends not only on the Utes themselves but also the caliber of competition.
If Utah’s quarterback play is above average, then the South title should be in reach next season. We picked Arizona State to win the division, but the Sun Devils hardly qualify as the overwhelming favorite.
So, yes. There’s a reasonable path to the conference championship game. At that point, it’s four quarters to glory against a North opponent that also could be less than dominant.
In other words: Maybe this is the year, or maybe it isn’t.
How’s that for being definitive.
How bad is the leadership at Arizona with the President/wanna be AD Robert Robbins? Both the football and basketball coaching searches looked bad. — @UACatManDo
In both cases, the Wildcats could end up with the right coach. Bad searches don’t always result in bad hires (see: UCLA and Cronin, Mick).
But yes, as wanna-be athletic directors go, Robbins is one heck of a heart surgeon.
Of note: His contract expires next summer.
Will the Board of Regents grant an extension? That probably depends on how the BOR judges his handling of the pandemic and university matters in general.
There simply isn’t enough time for the performance of the new coaches (Jedd Fisch and Tommy Lloyd) to impact the BOR’s decision on Robbins’ contract.
Given all the noise about Arizona, there has been scant commentary about Bobby Hurley and the hugely underachieving Forks. Why is that? Covid? Or perhaps the curse of the Coach K coaching tree? — @SebastianLane9
Not sure about curses, but it was unquestionably a bad year for ASU basketball.
COVID played a role, sure, but the Sun Devils had other issues (injuries, chemistry, execution) that turned a highly-anticipated season into a flop.
Success next year, particularly in the postseason, is essential for Hurley to maintain the momentum generated in the 2017-19 seasons.
He needs a title (regular season or conference tournament) and a victory in the NCAAs, beyond the First Four.
Any word on a replacement commissioner, for that clown Scott? Would be nice to have someone ready to hit the ground running. — @FightOn551
I agree completely on the second point.
There are several ways the presidents could screw this up, and we won’t be the slightest bit surprised if they do. (Our confidence in their ability to see clearly what the conference needs is, err, um, low.)
But the worst possible outcome would be to hire someone who must learn on the job — that would be a catastrophe for the conference.
I expect the search to extend into May, if not June. Consensus on the background and skill set necessary has proven elusive thus far.
Could you please discuss why most of the Pac-12 upper campuses refuse to fully support football with resources and funding? Do you think a new generation of leadership, along with a progressive Commissioner can elevate the conference? — @kmasterman
Generally speaking, the presidents run multi-billion-dollar businesses that double as institutions of higher learning.
Within that, the athletic departments account for five percent of the budget, irritate large segments of the faculty and don’t get the school any closer to a Nobel Prize.
Hotline readers — most of them, anyway — understand that a winning football program brings value to the campus community that cannot be measured in dollars. Some Pac-12 presidents realize that, too.
In fact, I’d argue that the current group of CEOs has a better understanding of football’s value to the university writ large than the collection in place five or 10 years ago.
But there’s no question that the awareness level needs to increase, or that leadership by the commissioner is integral to that process.
Larry Scott’s replacement must have the trust of the presidents and the athletic directors, must ensure each voice is heard and must offer a vision for prosperity that convinces the campuses to invest in football.
When discussing the hiring process, we often focus on the football piece. Or the future of the Pac-12 Networks or the location of the conference office. Or NIL. Or revenue.
But make no mistake:
The culture within the conference must improve; otherwise, the schools have no chance to navigate this tumultuous upcoming stretch and come out stronger on the other side.
It all starts with the commissioner. Lay out a vision. Listen to the stakeholders. Make the tough decisions. And inspire.
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