It’s definitely too early to talk about the National League West standings, right?
Of course it is.
Look at the 2020 Colorado Rockies, who started 11-3 and had high hopes of making a playoff run in an abbreviated 60-game season. They went 15-31 the rest of the way and finished in fourth place.
Look at the 2019 Washington Nationals, who went 19-31 in their first 60 games and had fans calling for manager Davey Martinez to lose his job. They won an epic World Series and stood on top of the world.
The Giants have completed just 12 games in a year where they’ll play 162, so front office executives, coaches and players alike will tell you there’s no sense in seeing where the team stands in mile 1 of a 26.2-mile journey.
Admit it, though, it’s hard for you not to look. It’s hard because after the Giants went 5-1 on their first homestand of the season and watched the Padres split a four-game set against the lowly Pirates, San Francisco has climbed ahead of San Diego and into second-place in the National League West.
It’s also hard to ignore the Giants’ hot start because every fan understands what a daunting challenge lies ahead. The Dodgers, the reigning champions, are juggernauts and the Padres are considered one of the top three-to-four teams in the majors.
Fall too far behind, and the path to contending for a playoff berth becomes that much steeper. Play from ahead, as the Giants are doing, and suddenly a wild card berth seems a lot more realistic.
The Giants also realize they have a golden opportunity to separate themselves from mediocrity and position themselves to play from ahead because of a softer April schedule. The Giants won’t face the Dodgers until late May and over the next two weeks, they’ll play seven games against the Marlins, three against the Phillies and three against the lowly Rockies.
The schedule is set up for the Giants to give their fans a reason to continue looking at the standings, even if that’s not necessarily the best idea so early in the year.
After four consecutive losing seasons, however, it’s okay to give yourself a break and get excited. The Giants are percentage points ahead of the Padres in the NL West, and as catcher Curt Casali said Wednesday, “the kids are vibing.”
Manager’s corner
Watch out Jim Brower and Julián Tavárez, because a record with your name on it could be in jeopardy.
Okay, it’s admittedly a stretch to think any pitcher will challenge the Giants’ franchise record for single-season appearances (89), but two weeks into the regular season, righty Tyler Rogers and lefty Jake McGee are both on pace to throw in 108 games.
Yes, you read that right.
Rogers and McGee have each appeared in eight of the Giants’ 12 games thus far and are two of the biggest reasons why the team is off to an 8-4 start. Kapler loves having two reliable pitchers to turn to in high-leverage situations, but he admitted pregame on Wednesday that he has to be careful about picking and choosing his spots.
“Rogers is on pace to throw in a lot of games and it’s really not fair to do to Rog to put all the burden on him to go through tough pockets of right-handed hitters,” Kapler said.
No, it’s not fair, but with Matt Wisler’s early-season struggles and Reyes Moronta’s flexor injury, the Giants don’t have another right-hander they can trust. The Giants know that needs to change, but hours after Kapler said he didn’t want Rogers to have to shoulder such a significant load, he turned to him in the eighth inning of a 2-0 ballgame with a chance to secure a series win on the line.
“We’re going to try to win every single baseball game and sometimes that means pushing guys past their comfort level,” Kapler said postgame. “But we definitely have to be cognizant of the workloads. Both (Rogers and McGee) are on pace to pitch a lot of baseball games. I was talking to McGee and I said, ‘The only way we can get you an off day is by actually having an off day.’”
Thursday’s off day clearly came at the right time.
Is there an easy solution for Kapler? Of course not. Are there ways the Giants can ease the burden on their backend arms? Yes.
Earlier this week, I wrote in this space about why the Giants should consider signing veteran free agent Shane Greene. I’ve also explained the need to add a right-hander who performed well in spring training –Nick Tropeano, Dominic Leone or Zack Littell– to the 40 and 26-man rosters, which could give Kapler another setup option.
Another consideration the Giants may have: Using Logan Webb as either a high-leverage reliever or as a long man who can finish games. Let’s say Webb enters in the seventh inning, as he did on Wednesday against the Reds. Instead of leaving him in for three outs, the Giants may want to allow him to try to get all nine, which would keep Webb stretched out and give a day off to the relievers who need it most.
Whatever the Giants decide, they are well aware the current pace for Rogers and McGee is unsustainable. The results have been great, but the duo can’t do it all alone.
Statcast study
A space devoted to looking at advanced statistics isn’t supposed to cover fielding percentage, but that’s exactly what’s about to happen.
Fielding percentage is generally considered a flawed way to evaluate defensive performance, in part because some of the players with the best range will rack up errors because they get to more balls than their peers. Many coaches have explained that they don’t care for fielding percentage and prefer looking at stats such as “groundballs converted into outs,” to evaluate their infield’s performance.
That number, however, isn’t publicly available.
In the case of the Giants –a team that anticipated defense would be its primary weakness– it’s worth looking at fielding percentage.
Through 12 games, the Giants’ .995 fielding percentage leads the majors. After making two errors on Opening Night in Seattle, the Giants haven’t made one since.
To start 8-4 with all the offensive struggles the Giants have endured, they’ve needed to do the “little things,” quite well. Fielding the ball cleanly has been an obvious strength, but it’s even more impressive considering all the moving pieces the Giants have had in the infield and all the groundballs their pitchers have induced.
The Giants’ pitching staff ranks fourth in the majors in groundball percentage as 46.8% of all the balls put in play against them have been on the ground. Led by newcomers Anthony DeSclafani (56.3%) and Aaron Sanchez (61.3%), the Giants are inducing more grounders than they did a season ago.
The Giants are also keeping the ball in the park, as only 9.3% of the flyballs hit against them have turned into home runs. That ties the Giants with the White Sox for the second lowest home run-to-flyball rate in the majors, and they can thank DeSclafani and Johnny Cueto –who have each yet to allow a home run– for bringing that number down.
Aside from generating a high volume of grounders and inducing soft contact in the air, there’s another reason the Giants have been strong defensively so far. Generally speaking, they’ve been positioned quite well.
Opponents are hitting .251 on balls in play against the Giants, which is the fourth-lowest batting average on balls in play allowed. So while the Giants’ pitchers 8.75 strikeouts per nine innings (23rd in the majors) has required the defense to be active this year, the position players have been up for the challenge.
There are a lot of different factors that have played into the Giants’ hot start, but a defense that was expected to be a liability deserves more credit than it has received.
