If you’ve watched the Olympics recently, you’ve probably seen an ad featuring Sen. Elizabeth Warren urging Californians to vote no on the Sept. 14 recall election. The Massachusetts Democrat won’t be the last big-name Democrat to make a swing through the Golden State — physically or virtually — to try to help Gov. Gavin Newsom keep his job.
“They need star power to grab the attention of Democratic voters,” said Darry Sragow, a seasoned Democratic strategist.
Just weeks ago, the recall looked like a long-shot. But recent polling suggests that almost as many likely voters want to oust Newsom as keep him. The vast majority of Democratic voters are on the “keep” side, while Republicans overwhelmingly favor sending the governor packing. Democrats outnumber GOP voters about two to one, but polling indicates Republicans are far more fired up to participate in the election. Long story, short: Newsom’s team needs to motivate his base or he could very well be out.
Enter the turnout boosters.
“There will be a parade of big name Democrats from all over the country campaigning on the governor’s behalf,” said Steven Maviglio, a political consultant who worked as a press secretary for former Gov. Gray Davis and knows a thing or two about recalls.
Last month, Vice President Kamala Harris, an East Bay native and former senator from California, said she would campaign for her old friend Newsom. Political analysts wouldn’t be surprised if the Obamas — Barack or Michelle, possibly both — cut an ad backing the governor. Maybe even Bernie Sanders, or President Joe Biden.
“Their messages need to be targeted to the voters they are likely to have an impact on,” Sragow said, adding that the parade of politicos will be more powerful if it reflects the diversity of the state’s Democratic voters.
While some Democrats are already amped up and ready to vote, the campaign will need to convince voters who feel ambivalence or even mild dislike toward Newsom to participate on his behalf.
“They don’t need to be madly in love,” Sragow said. “This isn’t about hooking up with someone for the rest of your life, it’s just picking a governor.”
To do that, longtime political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe said, Newsom’s team will also have to be careful not to bring in someone too polarizing.
“I would say don’t send AOC,” she said, referring to the outspoken New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a popular figure among progressives but a lawmaker disliked by many moderate and conservative voters. “Way too radioactive.”
The big-name backers who turn up to assist with the Save Gavin Newsom’s Job mission won’t just be doing it for the sitting governor.
“There’s a lot at stake for Democrats nationally,” Maviglio said.
If recall backers succeed, it could put “wind in the sails” of the GOP ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, he said, potentially endangering Democrats’ tenuous control of the U.S. Senate.
Voters are likely to see far more than just shiny commercials or campaign events featuring recognizable faces, however.
Newsom’s team, Sragow said, will also need to “run a good old-fashioned, door-knocking ground campaign one voter at a time.”
That won’t be all. Traditionally, voters have been bombarded with glossy political mailers. But now it’s their phones that are likely to blow up with texts and their social media feeds with promoted posts. Earlier this week, just after the polling showing a tight race came out, Democratic voters received a text message saying that “if Democrats don’t step up and vote, CA’s going to have a Trump-Republican governor.”
And in the last 90 days, the Stop the Republican Recall committee has spent more than $500,000 on Facebook ads, roughly 10 times the $55,600 spent by reality star Caitlyn Jenner, one of the candidates hoping to replace Newsom.
Whichever methods he chooses, Newsom has a huge cash advantage over those trying to unseat him, having pulled in roughly $40 million from wealthy tech titans and unions to fight the recall. Last week, the California Teachers Association pumped $1.8 million into the Stop the Republican Recall committee. Unlike other candidates, Newsom doesn’t have to grapple with contribution limits, allowing people like Netflix CEO Reed Hastings to funnel $3 million into the governor’s pockets.
And with the race looking tight, “I think you’ll see the party really swing into action at a higher level, too,” Maviglio said.
Expect the advertising push to ramp up soon.
With voters consuming political information in so many ways, Sragow said, “you can’t do this at the last minute. Spend money early and spend it late.”
Newsom’s team may not use precious time — the election is just six weeks away and voters will get their ballots by mail in mid-August — going after his individual challengers, like conservative radio host Larry Elder and former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer. If he were running the campaign, Sragow said, he’d “paint them with a big red brush.”
“Tweedledee and Tweedledum, they’re all the same. They’re all Trumpers. That’s where I would go,” Sragow said.
But Bebitch Jeffe thinks Newsom will have to do more.
“I don’t think that’s good enough,” she said. “It doesn’t crystalize the message.”
Newsom, Bebitch Jeffe said, must also make the case for why he’s good for the state. In recent weeks, he’s been crisscrossing the state hosting campaign-style events touting his work to stop the pandemic and boost the economy, and he wasted no time rolling out high-dollar initiatives from the state’s massive budget surplus to tackle everything from homelessness to education.
“Why should you vote no? This is a referendum on Gavin Newsom,” she said. “I think we’re beyond thinking everything is a referendum on Donald Trump.”
Harriet Blair Rowan contributed reporting.
