Resetting the Playoff Picture Following Week 12 of the 2021 NFL Season

Brad Gagnon@Brad_GagnonX.com Logo NFL National ColumnistNovember 29, 2021

Resetting the Playoff Picture Following Week 12 of the 2021 NFL Season

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    When the NFL season hits the post-Thanksgiving period, you know we're approaching crunch time. 

    That's the case now that the leftovers have started to turn as we exit the 12th Sunday of the 2021 NFL campaign. It's officially time to start closely monitoring the playoff pictures in both conferences. 

    With one game remaining Monday night, let's break it all down. 

Playoff Picture Through 12 Weeks

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    AFC 

    1. Baltimore Ravens (8-3)
    2. New England Patriots (8-4)
    3. Tennessee Titans (8-4)
    4. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
    5. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
    6. Buffalo Bills (7-4)
    7. Los Angeles Chargers (6-5)
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    8. Las Vegas Raiders (6-5)
    9. Denver Broncos (6-5)
    10. Indianapolis Colts (6-6)
    11. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5-1)
    12. Cleveland Browns (6-6)
    13. Miami Dolphins (5-7)

    NFC

    1. Arizona Cardinals (9-2)
    2. Green Bay Packers (9-3)
    3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3)
    4. Dallas Cowboys (7-4)
    5. Los Angeles Rams (7-4)
    6. San Francisco 49ers (6-5)
    7. Minnesota Vikings (5-6)
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    8. Atlanta Falcons  (5-6)
    9. New Orleans Saints (5-6)
    10. Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)
    11. Carolina Panthers (5-7)
    12. Washington Football Team (4-6)
    13. New York Giants (4-7)
    14. Chicago Bears (4-7)

New England vs. Buffalo Is About to Become Spicy

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    Few expected the Patriots to keep up with the Bills in the AFC East this season, especially when the Pats announced they'd be rolling with rookie quarterback Mac Jones from the get-go. New England had a promising offseason, but six wins separated those teams last year, and the Bills were widely expected to contend for the Super Bowl in 2021. 

    That's still the case, but it's also become apparent the Bills will have their work cut out for them down the stretch because they actually trail the streaking Patriots by half a game entering the home stretch. 

    Never count out Bill Belichick, whose team won its sixth game in a row Sunday in blowout fashion against a strong Tennessee Titans squad. 

    The best part? The Bills and Patriots play each other twice in the last six weeks of the regular season, including Monday night in Western New York. The Bills might be a small favorite there because they're at home on extra rest, but they have a lot more to lose. Not only were they supposed to run away with the division this season, but the Pats still have their bye week ahead of them and they'll get to host Buffalo in Week 16.

There's a Path to a First-Round Bye for the Chiefs

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    This is also hard to believe considering how down and out the Chiefs appeared to be only a few weeks ago, but eulogizing a team coached by Andy Reid and quarterbacked by Patrick Mahomes is always risky.

    While the Chiefs were on their bye in amid a four-game winning streak, the Chargers fell to 6-5, expanding Kansas City's divisional lead by half a game. 

    But the Chiefs undoubtedly have their sights set higher. And while the Patriots and Bills fight each other, it's entirely possible 7-4 Kansas City can leapfrog 8-4 Tennessee, 8-3 Baltimore and whoever wins the AFC East in order to land the top seed in the conference for the third time in the last four years. 

    There are no super-easy games remaining on the Chiefs' schedule (Denver, Las Vegas, the Chargers, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Denver again), but they should be favored the rest of the way and they've got all of the momentum coming off their bye. The Ravens' remaining schedule (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Green Bay, Cincinnati, the Rams and Pittsburgh again) is a lot tougher, while the Titans have now lost back-to-back games and are having trouble hanging in for a long stretch without star running back Derrick Henry. 

    So while they were once 3-4 and in crisis mode, you shouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs wind up with home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. 

Watch out for Miami in the AFC Wild-Card Race

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    Meanwhile, the Dolphins were once 1-7 but also can't be counted out following a four-game winning streak to move within 1.5 games of the last AFC playoff spot. 

    There's still plenty of work to do, but we also have lots of evidence Brian Flores is a tremendous coach. He has his team dominating despite its flaws, and it hasn't been all gimmes. They easily defeated the Ravens on short rest two weeks ago. 

    The Dolphins still get their bye, and their next three games are against teams with losing records. There's little margin for error and they will have to step it up with a road finale in Tennessee and a home finale against the Patriots, but the momentum is there and it's important to remember that this was widely viewed as a playoff-caliber team prior to that horrendous start. 

    They could sneak into the postseason, especially if the cannibalism continues in the AFC West. 

The Scrap for the Top NFC Seed Looks Like a Three-Way Fight

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    While the Cardinals were idle in Week 12, they were forced to watch both the Packers and Buccaneers win in order to keep the pressure on for the top seed in the NFC. Now, the Packers are just half a game back with the head-to-head tiebreaker in their back pocket and a Week 13 bye on the horizon. 

    The Bucs aren't as close as Green Bay, but this is when they began to surge last year and they took care of business under pressure against a hot Colts team on the road in Week 12. They and the Packers have both been here and done this, while the Cards are out of their element with third-year coach/quarterback duo Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray. 

    The Cowboys and Rams are also factors at 7-4, but their trajectories are pretty discouraging. Dallas has lost three of four while Los Angeles is now mired in a three-game losing streak after falling to the Packers on Sunday. 

    So it'll likely now come down to whether the Cards can get healthy and hold up with two teams led by future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in their rear-view mirror. The good news is they should technically be expected to win each of their remaining six games, aside from a potential toss-up in Dallas in Week 17. 

A Losing Team Could Make the Playoffs in the NFC

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    The 49ers beat the Vikings on Sunday in a battle between 5-5 fringe playoff teams in the NFC, but Minnesota remains in a playoff spot as a result of a tiebreaker edge over the Falcons and Saints, while the Eagles, Panthers and Washington all remain just half a game back despite being two games below .500. 

    Assuming the Rams get back on track and grab one wild-card spot, it's essentially a 10-team fight for the other two wild-card slots in that conference. Nine of those 10 teams having losing records right now, and six are multiple games below the .500 mark.

    In other words, there's a decent chance we wind up with a losing team in the NFC playoffs, which is a shame considering that in the AFC, a handful of teams that are .500 or better are currently on the outside looking in.

    Which current NFC losers have the best shot? Keep an eye on Washington, who hasn't lost since Week 8 and has a relatively easy finishing schedule, starting Monday night against Seattle. 

Monday's Seattle-Washington Result Matters

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    Not only can the WFT become a legit NFC playoff contender with a third consecutive win at home Monday night against the slumping Seahawks, but they can essentially dig Seattle's grave in the process. That's why the Week 12 finale is extremely important and intriguing. 

    Seattle's never been worse than 9-7 in the Russell Wilson era, but Wilson was injured after the team got off to a slow start, and he hasn't been himself in back-to-back losses since returning to the field. Still, you never want to count out Wilson and Pete Carroll, who have been to two Super Bowls together, and it's not as though the Seahawks are barren elsewhere. This team has Super Bowl potential when all's right. 

    Not much has been right yet, but this is a good year to be bad in the NFC. There's seven playoff slots rather than six nowadays, and at least the season is an extra game longer. At 4-7, Wilson and Co. can absolutely make a run and sneak in. At 3-8, it might be time to start thinking about 2022 and beyond, with major changes potentially on the table. 

    So yeah, the stakes are high on Monday Night Football.

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